A flyweight showdown between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg is the co-main event at UFC 305. Erceg is fighting in his home city of Perth and will want to perform in front of his fans. The Aussie is the favorite to win, and in our UFC betting picks we tell you if he will do it.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya may be the headline act of UFC 305, but when it comes to exciting matchups, Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg in the co-main event isn’t too far behind it.
Australia vs. New Zealand is always a huge rivalry, no matter what the sport is. And with Erceg an Aussie and Kara-France a Kiwi from Auckland, this fight has all the ingredients to upstage the main event (at least in the eyes of the fans in the stadium) between Du Plessis and Adesanya.
If you want more information on the main event, then check out our Du Plessis vs. Adesanya betting picks, for Kara-France vs. Erceg picks, read on.
Kai Kara-France is the No.4 ranked flyweight in the UFC, and Erceg is ranked No.7 in the 125-pound division.
Despite this, in the latest UFC betting, Erceg is the -155 favorite to win the fight on the money line, with Kara-France the outsider at +125.
In UFC betting terms, those odds aren’t heavily in favor of the Aussie, and it could be a home advantage that is giving him the edge with the best UFC betting sites.
On the total fight line, the spread is set at 2.5 rounds. The fight lasting over 2.5 rounds is the favorite at -240, with under 2.5 rounds at +200.
Moving onto the props markets shows the fight is most likely to be decided by a decision. The contest to last the distance is the favorite at -210, with the fight not going the distance at +155.
Steve Erceg is +140 to win by points, Kara-France is +250 to win by the same method.
To win by KO/TKO/DQ, Kara-France is +550 and Erceg is +600. For a win by submission, Erceg is +600 and Kara-France is +2200.
The props markets go a long way to pointing out the differing fighting styles between the two men.
Kai Kara France has a record of 24-11-0-1 in mixed martial arts. The 31-year-old Kiwi is ranked the No. 4 fighter in the UFC flyweight division.
He has a lot of defeats on his fight record, and notably, he comes into this contest on a two-fight losing streak. He first lost to Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 in July 2022. That was in a contest for the interim UFC Flyweight Championship.
He followed that up with a split decision loss to Amir Albazi in his most recent fight. That was over 12 months ago in June 2023.
The breakdown of Kai Kara-France’s 24 wins shows he has won 11 by KO, 10 by decision, and three by submission. Five of his 11 losses have come by decision with three KO defeats and three submission losses.
Kara-France is a very technical fighter. He is a kickboxer by trade but is a powerful fighter with knockout skills in his hands.
The step up in class he has encountered at the UFC leaves him with a 7-4 record. His wins have been impressive, and on the whole, his defeats have been against the top guys in his division like Brandon Moreno (twice) and Brandon Royval.
Steve Erceg has a mixed martial arts record of 12-2. The 29-year-old Australian is the No. 7 fighter in the UFC’s flyweight rankings.
In the UFC, Erceg’s reputation has grown, and his record is 3-1. His defeat came in his last fight against Alexandre Pantoja in May, where Erceg fought the Brazilian for his UFC flyweight title after just three fights in the organization.
Getting a title shot so early in his career was a shock. But the fight was in part reward for his impressive Performance of the Night KO win over Matt Schnell in March.
The Pantoja defeat was by unanimous decision. But it wasn’t as clear cut as it sounds, with plenty thinking that Erceg did enough to win the contest. That fight is history now, and Erceg begins his quest to gain another shot at the title.
The Aussie is a good striker who also has good all-round ability. He is unique in that he doesn’t look as scary and dangerous as a lot of his peers in the organization do. But it would be foolish to underestimate him on his appearance alone.
His record testifies to this. Six of his twelve wins have come by submission, four by decision, and two by knockout. His two losses have come by decision.
Steve Erceg has a height advantage over his Kara-France. And if he fights to his strengths, he should have too much for his Kiwi rival.
Erceg’s biggest problem could be getting over-excited in front of his home fans. If he can shut that out and focus on the fight, we expect Erceg to win, probably by decision at +140.
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