Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya are the headline acts of UFC 305. The duo is set to clash for the UFC middleweight title currently held by Du Plessis. The champion is the underdog, and in our UFC betting picks, we tell you his chances of holding onto the belt against the former champion.
The middleweight division of the UFC is in a healthy position. Alex Pereira may have moved up to light-heavyweight. But despite his loss, the division not only boasts Du Plessis and Adesanya but also Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker, and Nassourdine Imavov.
Before his move up to light heavyweight, Pereira traded ownership of the middleweight belt with Adesanya. After winning the belt back spectacularly from his old adversary, Adesanya was on the end of an upset when Strickland defeated him to win the title last September.
Strickland’s success was short-lived. He lost the title to Du Plessis in his first defense.
Now, in this latest round of pass-the-parcel, Adesanya has a chance to reclaim the title for a third time if he can defeat Du Plessis in Perth, Australia.
The best UFC betting sites have the challenger Israel Adesanya as the favorite to win on the money line.
In the latest UFC Vegas Betting Odds, Adesanya is -130 to win the title for a third time. Dricus Du Plessis is +110 to defend his title for the first time.
More betting options for Du Plessis vs. Adesanya from different bookmakers are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
Dricus Du Plessis is a 30-year-old South African with a Mixed Martial Arts record of 21-2-0. In the UFC his record reads 7-0.
Du Plessis has taken the organization by storm. Included in his seven-fight winning streak are KO victories over Robert Whittaker, Trevin Giles, and Markus Perez. He also defeated Darren Till by submission and has beaten Sean Strickland and Brad Tavares on points.
The South African has a good all-round fight Resume. Ten of his career wins have come by submission, nine by knockout, and two by submission. One word of caution – nine of his ten submission wins came before he joined the UFC.
His two defeats came before the UFC. One was by KO and one was by submission. Du Plessis has only gone the distance twice in his career.
Israel Adesanya is a two-time UFC middleweight champion. He has a professional MMA fight record of 24-3-0. In the UFC his record reads 10-3-0.
The 30-year-old was born in Nigeria but fights out of New Zealand where he has lived for 20 years.
His 24 wins are made up of 16 knockouts and eight decisions. Two of his defeats have come by decision and one by knockout. He has only been stopped once in his 27-fight career.
Two of Adesanya’s three defeats in the UFC have come in his three most recent fights. He lost to Alex Pereira by TKO at UFC 281 in November 2022.
Adesanya immediately avenged that loss by inflicting his own KO win over Pereira at UFC 287. The April 2023 victory saw Adesanya win back the middleweight title.
He then lost the belt in his next fight against Sean Strickland. The loss to Strickland was by unanimous decision in a strange fight that the then champion started as a -700 betting favorite.
Throughout his career with the organization, Adesanya has fought all the top guys in the UFC. Might this have caught up with him when he fought Strickland?
Dricus Du Plessis is the middleweight champion, and seven fights unbeaten in the UFC.
His opponent, Israel Adesanya, is the No.2 ranked fighter in the 185 lb division and a two-time middleweight championship title holder.
Du Plessis is the busier fighter, landing 6.49 significant strikes per minute. Adesanya lands just 3.93. Du Plessis absorbs 4.79 strikes per minute, Adesanya, 3.11.
Yet Adesanya has the better KO record. It seems that he throws fewer punches, but when they connect, they count.
The challenger is likely to try to keep this fight vertical. Du Plessis has a takedown accuracy of 51%, Adesanya has 14%. But Adesanya’s defense is strong at 77%, compared to Du Plessis who is 40%.
Adesanya is also the bigger man by three inches at 6 ‘4″. The size difference could be key.
The bottom line seems to be this. If the version of Israel Adesanya who defeated Alex Pereira at UFC 281 turns up, he will likely win. If the version that lost to Sean Strickland turns up, he will probably lose.
That’s what is making this fight so hard to call.
We’re going to give Adesanya the benefit of the doubt. We say he still has plenty in the tank and make Israel Adesanya our betting pick to beat Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 305.
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