Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2 is the co-main event of UFC 304 on Saturday. The venue is the Co-op Live Arena in Manchester, England, and Aspinall will be keen to put on a good showing in front of his home crowd in the organization’s latest pay-per-view event. In our latest UFC betting picks, we tell you if Aspinall will beat Blaydes and gain revenge for his loss to the American in 2022.
Fighting on the undercard of Edward vs. Muhammad are Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes – you can read our take on the main event in our Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad betting picks.
The duo’s rematch is the co-main event of UFC 304. The first time the two met was at UFC Fight Night 208 in July 2022. On that occasion, Blaydes won by TKO after Aspinall suffered a knee injury just 15 seconds into the contest.
To date, the defeat is the only setback Aspinall has suffered in the UFC. Since the loss, the Salford-born Aspinall has won the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship against Sergei Pavlovich. The fight against Blaydes will be his first defense of the title.
Official UFC Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones is set to face Stipe Miocic for the heavyweight title sometime in the future. At the very least, the winner of Aspinall vs. Blaydes will probably be the challenger to the winner of Jones vs. Miocic.
Jones and Miocic have only fought once each since 2020. Jones is 37, and Miocic is 41. So with neither getting any younger, the rematch between Aspinall and Blaydes is a significant fight, as the UFC can’t wait forever for Jones vs. Miocic to happen.
In theory, this could end up being an actual heavyweight title contest.
The best UFC betting sites have Aspinall as a heavy-betting favorite to beat Blaydes in their Manchester rematch. On the money line, Tom Aspinall is -350 to win. Curtis Blaydes is +250 to repeat his shock win.
On the totals spread, the fight is -165 to be under 1.5 rounds and +135 to last for more than (over) 1.5 rounds. More betting options for Aspinall vs. Blaydes from different bookmakers are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
Tom Aspinall has a mixed martial arts record of 14-3-0.
There is far more to the 31-year-old Aspinall than just punching. For a start, he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and rather than having a signature KO punch, Aspinall is more of a fast mover who finishes opponents with a flurry of punches.
Aspinall has had eight fights in the UFC, boasting a 7-1 record. The one loss came to Blaydes in their first contest in 2022. Five of his seven wins in the organization have come by KO/TKO, with elbows playing as much of a part in his finishes as punches have.
But don’t underestimate his ground skills either, with two submission wins in his last six fights, Aspinall knows how to put his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to good use.
One further point to note about Aspinall is that his fights don’t last long. There is a good reason why this fight is -165 to finish in under 1.5 rounds, and that is because Aspinall has won six of his seven UFC fights inside the first round. The sixth fight only went as far as 1.09 into the second.
33-year-old Curtis Blaydes has an 18-4-0-1 MMA record.
In his fighting style, Blaydes is like a rare commodity in the heavyweight division, with his wrestling skills more akin to fighters in smaller weight divisions.
Curtis Blaydes has the record for takedowns in the UFC heavyweight division (62), although it is worth noting that his takedown attempts have been dwindling in recent fights, with only one attempt in his last four outings.
Blaydes is the No.4 fighter in the UFC heavyweight rankings. In his last fight, he scored a knockout win over Jailton Almeida in March 2024 at UFC 299. Maybe it’s this increased confidence in his KO ability that has seen Blaydes start to abandon his takedown attempts.
The win over Almeida was his fourth in his last five fights. It was also a bounce-back victory following a first-round TKO loss to Sergei Pavlovich in April 2023.
As you would expect in the heavyweight division, a high proportion of his wins have come by knockout. Of his 18 victories, 13 have been by KO/TKO, with five by decision. All four of his defeats have come by knockout.
Aspinall is Salford-born and bred. Salford is a part of the Greater Manchester region, so this is as close to a home fight as Aspinall could get without fighting in his parent’s backyard.
As well as being roared on by a partisan home crowd, Aspinall looks to be in the prime years of his career and looks like a better version of himself than the one that was lost by an unfortunate TKO to Blaydes in 2022.
A win for Tom Aspinall by knockout is our UFC 304 betting pick.
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