Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura headlines UFC Vegas 88 as the organization heads back to Nevada for this Saturday’s action after the excitement of last weekend’s pay-per-view event in Florida. Australia’s Tai Tuivasa is the betting favorite. But have the bookmakers got it right? Let’s give you the answer in our latest UFC betting picks.
Tai Tuivasa is on a three-fight losing run. He still retains a top-10 ranking in the UFC heavyweight division. But he badly needs a win to get his MMA career back on track and prevent himself from slipping further down the rankings.
His opponent, Marcin Tybura, is also coming into this fight on the back of a defeat. He lost to Tom Aspinall in London last July. And after two losses in his previous four fights, the Pole could also do with a win to boost his career prospects.
The two under-pressure heavyweights were due to stage this fight at UFC 298 in February. But earlier in the year, the promotion announced that the fight was to headline UFC Fight Night 239 instead.
Also on the Fight Night 239 card is a scrap between Bryan Battle (-170) and Ange Loosa (+145). This fight is the co-main event, with Battle favored to win the welterweight showdown over his big-hitting rival.
Ovince Saint Preux (+385) takes on Kennedy Nzechukwu (-510) in a light heavyweight contest and Gerald Meerschaert (-238) clashes with Bryan Barbarena (+203) at middleweight. Making up the rest of the card is a featherweight showdown between Christian Rodriguez (+159) and Isaac Dulgarian (-184) and a women’s bantamweight clash between Pannie Kianzad (+205) and Mary Chiasson (-240).
In the latest UFC Vegas betting odds to win the fight, Tai Tuivasa is the -125 favorite on the money line. Marcin Tybura is the outsider at +105.
In the total rounds market, over 1.5 is -175. Under is +145. More Tuivasa vs. Tybura betting options are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
| Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Marcin Tybura | +105 | +105 | +105 |
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -175 | -175 | -175 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | +145 | +145 | +145 |
Soon to be 31 (it’s his birthday on fight night), Tai Tuivasa has a 14-6 record in Mixed Martial Arts. The brawling Aussie is a bit of a live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword type of fighter. Of his 20 fights in MMA, 16 have ended in a knockout for someone, and only two have made it as far as the judges’ scorecards.
After starting his career with three straight wins in the UFC, Tuivasa then lost three on the spin. He bounced back with a five-fight winning streak between October 2020 and February 2022. But since then, things have started to go wrong.
He is now on a losing streak of three, although, in fairness to Tuivasa, the defeats have all been to top-notch opposition. In his Paris fight, he lost by a third-round KO to Ciryl Gane in the Fight of the Night. He then lost to Sergei Pavlovich by a first-round KO in December 2022. And most recently, Tuivasa was submitted by Alexander Volkov at UFC 293 in September 2023.
The No.9 ranked heavyweight has 14 wins in his career, with 13 coming by KO and one by decision. He has lost by KO on three occasions, been submitted twice, and lost by decision once.
Marcin Tybura has an MMA record of 24-8. The Pole is a vastly more experienced fighter than Tuivasa, but at 38 years of age, he may have seen better days.
No. 10 ranked Tybura first fought in the UFC in 2016. Within the organization, he has an 11-7 record. Overall, in his career, nine of his 24 wins have come by KO, with nine coming by decision and six by submission. His eight losses include five KOs and three points decisions.
Overall, his career in the UFC has been a bit of a mixed bag. There are a lot of defeats, but in fairness to Tybura (and like with Tuivasa), they have mostly come against top-quality opposition.
So where will this fight be won and lost? Tai Tuivasa will go into the octagon and look for the knockout. And although Tybura is a durable fighter capable of going the distance, it’s unlikely that this fight will.
Tybura is a far better fighter on the mat. If he can get Tuivasa down, an early TKO or submission win is likely. But if the fight stays vertical, Tuivasa will likely be the winner.
For a win by submission, Tybura is +400. There could be some value in that bet. Tuivasa is -130 to win the fight. And he is just -115 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. The Vegas sportsbooks know how much of a one-dimensional fighter the Aussie is.
We think it’s almost inevitable that Tybura will have to take part in a brawl. There is no other way that Tuivasa knows. In a trade-off on the feet, we favor the Aussie to win.
Tai Tuivasa to win by KO/TKO/DQ is our betting pick.
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