Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon “Chito” Vera 2 is in the main event of UFC 299. This will be O’Malley’s first defense of his UFC Bantamweight title, and it comes against the only man to beat him in his professional career. In our latest UFC betting picks, we look at O’Malley’s chances of gaining revenge over Vera and successfully defending his title.
Sean O’Malley won the Bantamweight title in August 2023 against Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley was the +210 underdog on the night, and he goes into this fight with roles reversed as the champion is the favorite (-288) to defend his title.
Marlon Vera is the only man to beat O’Malley in the Octagon. The win came in August 2020 at UFC 252, with Vera scoring a first-round TKO. Since that night, Vera has won five and lost two in the UFC promotion. O’Malley has five wins and a no contest on his resume across the same period.
Most weekends, the UFC organization puts on a top-quality main card. But when it comes to their PPV events, the promotion really pushes the boat out to impress.
Also on the PPV card this Saturday is a mouth-watering co-main event between Dustin Poirier (+168) and Benoit Saint-Denis (-193). The Frenchman is favored to defeat his more experienced American opponent in a matchup that could easily have been the sole main event.
Elsewhere, there are two Welterweight showdowns. Kevin Holland (-121) is favored to beat Michael Page (+101), and Jack Della Maddalena (-140) is expected to take care of Gilbert Burns (+120). Completing the card is a Bantamweight showdown between Petr Yan (-135) and Yadong Song (+115).
In the latest UFC Vegas betting odds to win the fight, Sean O’Malley is the -288 favorite on the money line. Marlon Vera is the outsider at +248.
The money appears to have been coming in for the champion over the past few days, as just last Saturday, O’Malley was -240 (Vera was +205). If you are looking to back O’Malley to win, you may have to move quickly to get the current price.
In the total market, over 4.5 is -160. Under is +130. More betting options are available below on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
| Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O’Malley | -288 | -288 | -288 |
| Marlon Vera | +248 | +248 | +248 |
| Over 4.5 Rounds | -160 | -160 | -160 |
| Under 4.5 Rounds | +130 | +130 | +130 |
Sean O’Malley has an MMA career record of 17-1-0-1. The 29-year-old American first fought with the UFC promotion in December 2017, defeating Terrion Ware in The Ultimate Fighter 26 Finale.
Since then, he has fought ten times with the promotion, winning eight, losing one, and with one no-contest. His most recent fight saw him defeat Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 to win the Bantamweight title. That was O’Malley’s fifth win in six fights since he lost to Vera at UFC 252.
Of O’Malley’s wins, 12 have come by KO, with four decisions and one by submission. His one defeat was by TKO.
Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera has an MMA record of 23-8-1. The 31-year-old Ecuadorian has won five of his last six fights, including a Performance of the Night victory over Dominick Cruz with a head kick KO at UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz in August 2022.
Since that impressive win, Vera has lost to Cory Sandhagen by a split decision, and he then defeated Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision at UFC 292.
His 23 wins have come by ten submissions, eight knockouts, and five decisions. All of Vera’s eight losses have come by decision. He has never been stopped in his MMA career.
In the first fight between the two, Marlon Vera wore O’Malley down with his powerful leg kicks. O’Malley knows he can’t afford to let that happen again this Saturday. The champion is the slightly younger man and is also quicker on his feet. His movement and quick feet are his main strengths, combined with his accurate striking power. He will need to fight to his strengths to defeat Vera, who remember, has never been stopped in his career.
Chito also hasn’t been great in his previous two fights. He was sluggish in the opening rounds of both fights and although that didn’t prevent him from scoring a unanimous decision win over Munhoz, it will cost him against a quick starter like O’Malley, who has the skills and speed to catch the judges’ attention.
Vera simply can’t afford to throw away rounds in a fight that looks destined to go to the scorecards.
One negative for O’Malley is due to his fighting style, he will slow down in the latter rounds. Against a durable opponent like Vera, that does allow the challenger to come back into the fight. A late stoppage could be Vera’s best route to victory.
For our pick, we have to go for O’Malley. He’s in the best shape of his career, fighting against a guy who has looked slightly off the pace in his last couple of fights. O’Malley is also the more accurate puncher and will no doubt utilize his speed and movement with his accuracy to score points.
We feel O’Malley will be strong enough to hold off Vera in the latter rounds and make him our pick to win the fight.
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