Jon Jones will defend his UFC heavyweight title against former champion Stipe Miocic at UFC 309. Jones is the betting favorite, and in our UFC betting picks, we tell you if the champion will successfully defend his title against the big-hitting Miocic.
Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon when he faces Stipe Miocic in New York City on November 16. Jones will be defending his UFC heavyweight championship belt in the pay-per-view event.
The fight is the main event on the UFC 309 fight card. It was originally supposed to take place in November 2023 at UFC 295.
However, before the two men had a chance to fight, Jones picked up a pectoral muscle injury that required surgery. An eight-month recovery period for the champion resulted in the fight being scrapped.
Jones hasn’t fought since March 2023, when he won the vacant heavyweight title from Ciryl Gane. Miocic hasn’t been in the octagon since March 2021. His last fight was a KO defeat to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260, a loss that brought his second stint as UFC heavyweight champion to an end.
Due to the layoffs, both men will be rusty, and both are also nearing the end of their careers in MMA. But this is a heavyweight fight, and that means anything is possible. If nothing else it will be interesting to see how much energy each man has left in the tank.
And with retirement talk – particularly from Jones – in the air, it could be the final fight for one or both of these warriors. And neither man is going to want to end their UFC career on a defeat.
In the latest UFC Vegas Betting Odds, Jon Jones is the red-hot favorite. The champion is -600, with Stipe Miocic the outsider at +450.
Jones has fought at light-heavyweight for the majority of his career. For a man only defending his heavyweight title for the first time, and in only his second fight in this division, you can be forgiven for thinking his odds are very short.
But Stipe Miocic hasn’t been active in the octagon for over three and a half years. He is also on the wrong side of 40. And all of this has led to the best MMA betting sites favoring the current champion.
More Jones vs. Miocic betting options from our recommended UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
Jon Jones has fought 29 times in his MMA career. He has 27 wins, one no-contest, and one loss by disqualification on his fight resume.
Ten of 37-year-old Jones’ wins have come by KO, ten on the scorecards, and seven by submission. All but one of his fights have been at light-heavyweight, a division Jones dominated since he first fought in the promotion in 2008.
Jones lacks that big one-punch finish. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he won by a KO. Although, he has only fought four times since that victory over Alexander Gustafsson.
What Jones does possess is high cardio and he does have that speed across the octagon that makes him a dangerous opponent, especially when he is able to land those flying knees that were so deadly earlier in his career.
Jones lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy is 57 percent. In defense, Jones absorbs 2.22 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 64. He also scores 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an accuracy of 45%.
42-year-old Stipe Miocic has an MMA record of 20 wins and four losses. 15 of his wins have come by KO, with the other five all by decision. Three of his four defeats have come by KO, with one by decision.
Miocic has never won a fight by submission, and he has also never lost by this method.
In his most recent fight back in 2021, Miocic was knocked out by Francis Ngannou. This was a different Ngannou from the one that Miocic defeated by a unanimous decision in January 2018.
Miocic is a big puncher. He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 53%. He absorbs 3.82 strikes per minute with a defensive average of 54%. On the mat, he averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 34%.
Jon Jones has superior skills on the mat, but Miocic is the bigger hitter. It’s pretty clear that Miocic will want the fight to take place vertically, he will believe catching the elusive Jones with that big shot is his best chance.
A win for Miocic by KO/TKO/DQ is definitely the most likely way the underdog can secure an unlikely victory.
For my betting pick, I am going for Jon Jones. Not taking the fight seriously is my only concern. If Jones is tuned in and ready for the scrap, then he is likely to win by decision.
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