Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis will lock horns in the main event of UFC Fight Night 231 on Saturday, November 4th. The heavyweight contest headlines the event from São Paulo. Jailton Almeida (-450) is the favorite to win on the night and continue his unbeaten run in the UFC. Derrick Lewis will have other ideas, and here in our UFC betting picks, we tell you if he has any chance of upsetting Almeida.
Yes, there is a rare weekend off in the UFC on Saturday (October 28th), but the action is back the following week with Fight Night 231/UFC on ESPN+ 89 coming from São Paulo, Brazil.
Elsewhere on the São Paulo main card, there is a welterweight contest between Gabriel Bonfim (-525) and Nicolas Dalby (+410), along with plenty of other top-quality bouts on the main card. Below we’ve included the latest odds for Fight Night 231 on our UFC betting table. All the odds used are from the best UFC betting sites.
| Main Card |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | -450 | -450 | -450 |
| Derrick Lewis | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | -525 | -525 | -525 |
| Nicolas Dalby | +410 | +410 | +410 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | -186 | -186 | -186 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | +161 | +161 | +161 |
| Caio Borralho | -286 | -286 | -286 |
| Abus Magomedov | +246 | +246 | +246 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | -103 | -103 | -103 |
| Armen Petrosyan | -117 | -117 | -117 |
| Ismael Bonfim | -450 | -450 | -450 |
| Vinc Pichel | +350 | +350 | +350 |
Jailton Almeida has an overall MMA record of 19-2 and is unbeaten since 2018, winning 14 successive fights. Another product of Dana White’s Contender Series, the 32-year-old has a 5-0 record in the UFC and hasn’t been taken beyond the second round in any of his fight bouts.
Wins have come by a combination of knockouts and submissions, showing what a versatile fighter Almeida is. In his most recent bout, he defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik in May 2023, where he won by submission via a rear-naked choke hold.
The total breakdown of Almeida’s 19 MMA career wins is seven knockouts and 12 submissions.
Derrick Lewis is a 39-fight veteran of the MMA world with a career record of 27-11-0-1. The 38-year-old has been on the losing end of four of his last six UFC fights, but he did end a three-fight losing streak with a TKO win over Marcos Rogério de Lima in his previous fight at UFC 291. The win was by TKO and saw Lewis win the Performance of the Night award. Lewis is also the holder of the most KO wins in UFC. His 33-second win over de Lima saw Lewis extend his record to 14 knockout wins.
His four most recent defeats have been to high-level UFC fighters. At UFC 265 he lost by TKO to Ciryl Gane of France. He has also been defeated by knockout in two of his three fights before the de Lima win by Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich, and he was also defeated by Sergey Spivak in February this year by submission.
His 27 MMA career wins have included 22 knockouts, four decisions, and one by submission.
From a combined 60 fights involving the two men, there are only seven decisions on their fight records. Almeida has gone the distance just one, and he lost. Lewis has gone to the judges’ scorecards on six occasions, winning four times and losing twice.
With one of these guys in the octagon, the fight is very likely going to end early. With both in the octagon, it’s a near certainty.
Jailton Almeida is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he can also punch. He is technically a better all-round fighter than Derrick Lewis. Almeida’s UFC Vegas betting odds of -450 to win the fight are a testament to that.
As for Derrick Lewis, he is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC heavyweight division. This means he always has the proverbial puncher’s chance. And this is no more relevant than in the top-weight division. But his biggest problem is that he always seems to come up short against the top-class performers. And although Almeida is new in terms of UFC experience, he is regarded as a top-class performer.
We’ve said it before, and we will say it again. Styles make fights. But in the case of Lewis, his style is just raw punch power in events like this. So if the underdog wins, it will be by knockout only.
Despite the huge gulf in the betting odds, the rankings have the two fighters paired closely together. Jailton Almeida is ranked number nine in the UFC heavyweight division, Derrick Lewis is ten.
The difference here is that Almeida is heading north in the rankings. This is only his sixth fight within the UFC organization, and he expected to continue to rise in the heavyweight rankings. Derrick Lewis is dangerous. Of that, there can be no doubt. He is an experienced campaigner, and he knows how to win fights. But we don’t envisage him heading up the rankings anytime soon.
We expect to see Almeida take the fight to the canvas. He has superior grappling skills, and unless Derrick Lewis can get in early and land a knockout blow, we can only see the fight being won by the Brazilian. Our betting pick is for Jailton Almeida to win the fight by submission.
See below the best Las Vegas sportsbooks, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
