Charles Oliveira will meet Michael Chandler in a rematch in the co-main event of UFC 309. Below, we look ahead to the contest and tell you the best bets to make when we name our Oliveira vs. Chandler UFC betting picks.
The main event of UFC 309 promises to be a spectacular scrap with Jon Jones facing Stipe Miocic in a heavyweight title fight. Jones hasn’t fought for over 18 months. So the expectations ahead of the night’s action are already through the roof at the prospect of one of the UFC’s greatest-ever fighters returning to the octagon.
The co-main event at UFC 309 is not to be missed either. Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is taking on Michael Chandler in a rematch of their fight in 2021.
Oliveria won the UFC 262 fight by TKO. He stopped Chandler after 0:19 of Round 2 by TKO, winning the vacant lightweight championship in the process.
Both fighters have gone on to suffer setbacks since that night. Oliveria only defended the title once before being stripped, and he recently lost a title eliminator fight against Arman Tsarukyan.
Chandler has lost two of his last three. He has also been out of the octagon since November 2022, most notably waiting months for a fight with Conor McGregor that never materialized.
Saturday’s high-profile contest offers the winner a chance to show the UFC’s fight makers they are worth considering for future title bouts.
Charles Oliveira is the favorite in the latest UFC Vegas betting odds.
On the money line, Oliveira is -240 to win the rematch. The bookmakers have Michael Chandler at +200 to gain revenge for his 2021 loss.
On the total lines, the fight is -115 to be under 1.5 rounds and -110 to be over 1.5 rounds. It looks like the sportsbooks expect an early finish to the five-round contest.
This is further backed up in the props markets, with ‘No’ for the fight to go the distance at -800, and ‘Yes’ at +450.
Charles Oliveira is +140 to win by submission, +220 by KO/TKO/DQ, and +900 to win on points.
Michael Chandler is +400 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +1000 to win by submission, and +1200 to win by decision.
More betting options from our recommended UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
Charles Oliveira has a professional fight record of 34-10-0-1. A well-rounded fighter, 21 of Oliverira’s wins have been by submission, with 10 by KO, and only three by decision.
Defeats are also evenly spread. Oliveira has been submitted four times, lost by KO four times, and lost by decision twice. There is also a No Contest recorded on his fight resume.
More recently, Charles Oliveira has lost three of his last two. The defeats came against Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 and Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Makhachev won by submission. Tsarukyan came up on the right side of a split decision.
Sandwiched between the two losses was a TKO win over Beneil Dariush at UFC 289 in June 2023.
In defense of Oliveira, the losses have been against elite fighters. And in the case of Tsarukyan, it was one of those tight calls that could have gone either way.
Michael Chandler has a professional mixed martial arts record of 23-8. Chandler is an ex-Bellator champion with a background in wrestling. He fights out of an orthodox stance.
11 of Chandler’s 23 wins have come by knockout. The 37-year-old has also won seven by submission and five by decision. Chandler has lost by knockout four times, by decision three times, and by submission once.
Since the defeat to Oliveira in May 2021, Chandler has lost to Justin Gaethje by unanimous decision at UFC 268, and to Dustin Poirier by submission at UFC 281. The fight dropped against Poirier in November 2022, is the last time Chandler has fought in the octagon.
In between those defeats, Chandler managed a KO win over Tony Ferguson in May 2022, at UFC 274.
The former lightweight title challenger waited patiently for a comeback fight against Conor McGregor. After months of speculation, terms were agreed for the pair to meet at UFC 303 in June.
But after that fight was abruptly canceled, Chandler cut his losses and looked elsewhere for an opponent, eventually settling on the rematch with Oliveira.
Both Oliveira and Chandler have good all-around MMA skills and are quite well-matched.
Oliveira has a clear edge in stoppages. He has the most submission wins in history in the UFC (16) and the most stoppages (20). It’s clear what his game plan will be.
Chandler is capable on the mat, but he’s not going to want to take the fight to Oliveira’s main strength. We expect Chandler to look for a knockout.
Unless Chandler can catch his opponent cold early on, we expect to see the fight fought on Oliveira’s terms. This makes a second win for the former champion the most likely result.
A win by submission for Charles Oliveira is our betting pick.
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