The experienced Neil Magny takes on the big-punching Carlos Prates in the main event of UFC Vegas 100 on Saturday. Prates is the -800 betting favorite to win the fight. But Magny is a dangerous opponent with a vast array of skills. Below we name our UFC betting picks for the fight.
The UFC is back at the Apex in Vegas for the next card on its relentless schedule. Saturday night’s show will be the final one before the next pay-per-view event, UFC 309 from Madison Square Garden the following week.
Headlining this Saturday is Neil Magny against Carlos Prates in a welterweight matchup. Magny is the No.15 ranked fighter on the UFC roster, while Prates is unranked, having only joined the promotion in 2023.
Neil Magny is a 37-year-old veteran of the UFC. He has been on the roster since 2013.
Carlos Prates is a 31-year-old who has only fought three times in the promotion. He is one of those fighters who has been earmarked as a future star, and his fight against Magny is one of those contests set up to give him a tough challenge as he builds his reputation within the organization.
The latest UFC Vegas betting odds strongly favor a win for Carlos Prates.
On the money line, Carlos Prates is -800 to win the fight. To roll back the years and upset the odds, Neil Magny is +500.
On the total lines, the fight is -215 to be under 2.5 rounds and +175 to be over 2.5 rounds.
With one-sided odds of that nature, a look at the props markets is always worthwhile.
To win by KO/TKO/DQ, Carlos Prates is -300. He is +800 to win by points and +900 to win with a submission. It’s obvious what way the sportsbooks see the fight ending.
For Magny, he is +800 to win on points, +1000 for a submission win, and +1200 for a win by KO/TKO/DQ.
In the betting for the fight to go the distance, no is -800 and yes is +500.
More betting options from our recommended UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
Neil Magny has an MMA career record of 29-12.
Only eight of his 29 wins have come by KO, with four by submission and 17 by decision. Six of his 12 losses were by submission, with three by KO and three on points.
Magny’s most recent fight was a TKO loss to Michael Morales in August. That defeat followed a TKO win over Mike Malott at UFC 297 in January.
Highlighting how inconsistent Magny has been lately, he has lost five of his last ten fights. However, he hasn’t lost back-to-back fights since 2013.
Magny lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 46. Magny’s defense is strong. He only absorbs 2.48 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 51 percent.
Magny also averages 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40 percent accuracy. His takedown defense sits at 54 percent.
Carlos Prates has an MMA record of 20-6. In the UFC he is 3-0.
His fights rarely go the distance. Only three times in 26 fights have the scorecards been required. His win breakdown is 15 by KO, three by submission, and two by decision. Prates has lost by submission three times, KO twice, and by decision once.
The 31-year-old Brazilian lands an impressive 4.71 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 57 percent. Defensively, he absorbs 5.02 strikes per minute with a defense of 48 percent.
Prates has not yet attempted a takedown in the UFC. His defense in this area of the fight is 80 percent.
So far his time in the UFC has followed the theme of the rest of his career. He has won all three of his fights in the franchise by KO. The most recent was against Li Jingliang in the 2nd round at UFC 305.
Prates has been busy lately. The fight with Magny will be his fourth this calendar year.
Neil Magny must know that he has been deliberately selected as an opponent to give Carlos Prates a tough test but to lose to the new kid on the block ultimately.
Carlos Prates is part of the future of the UFC, and Magny is coming to the end of his career. So, does this give Magny extra motivation to prove to the fight makers that they underestimated him?
It should, but it doesn’t mean Magny will win.
Magny’s best chance is probably to take the fight to the floor. He’s not going to win a slugfest. At odds of +500, he is worth backing outright if you want to risk wagering on him.
We can’t see a win for Magny. It’s going to be Carlos Prates. But at -800, there is no value backing him. In the props markets, Carlos Prates is -300 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. He is +250 to win by this method in Round 1 and +400 in Round 2.
A first-round KO win looks good value with a covering bet on a finish in round two in case Magny survives a round.
See below the best online betting sites in USA 2024, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
