Dana White and the UFC keep on providing top-quality fight cards, and this weekend is no different, with Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley headlining UFC 292 from TD Garden in Boston. The fight promises to be a classic, with Sterling defending his Bantamweight title for the fourth time. Here, we look ahead to the contest and tell you who we believe will win in our latest UFC betting picks.
Sterling against O’Malley is the main event. But don’t underestimate the rest of the main card put on by the UFC. Also competing in Massachusetts this weekend is Weili Zhang, the most successful Chinese MMA fighter, who is defending her strawweight crown against Brazil’s Amanda Lemos.
In the welterweight division, there is an exciting match-up between Neil Magny and Ireland’s Ian Machado Garry. Also on the main card is Da’Mon Blackshear against Mario Bautista and Marlon Vera against Pedro Munhoz. Both these fights are in the bantamweight division.
Full betting on the main card from the best UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
| UFC 292 Main Card Odds |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | -260 | -260 | -260 |
| Sean O'Malley | +220 | +220 | +220 |
| Weili Zhang | -320 | -320 | -320 |
| Amanda Lemos | +270 | +270 | +270 |
| Neil Magny | +380 | +380 | +380 |
| Ian Machado Garry | -505 | -505 | -505 |
| Da’Mon Blackshear | +180 | +180 | +180 |
| Mario Bautista | -210 | -210 | -210 |
| Marlon Vera | -210 | -210 | -210 |
| Pedro Munhoz | +180 | +180 | +180 |
The main event of UFC 2923 is between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, who will be fighting for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. The latest UFC Vegas betting odds favor Sterling to win and retain his title at -260. A win for Sean O’Malley, the so-called underdog, is +220.
Aljamain Sterling has a UFC record of 23-3-0 and is on a winning streak of nine, having last tasted defeat in December 2017.
Sean O’Malley’s UFC record reads 16-1-0. The man known as ‘Sugar’ hasn’t lost since suffering a TKO defeat to Marlon Vera in August 2020. Since that defeat, O’Malley has won four fights, with one ‘No Contest’ after Pedro Munhoz was rendered unable to continue after an accidental eye poke.
It was often previously said in boxing that different styles make for better contests, and this is exactly what the UFC is providing with this bout.
In this case, it’s a grappler against a puncher.
Aljamain Sterling is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. On his resume, it says he has the longest total fight time in UFC bantamweight history (standing at one hour and eight minutes). And in his last fight, he defeated the former two-division champion and Olympic wrestling gold medalist, Henry Cejudo.
The win over Cejudo was a split decision. But many believe that Sterling won the fight more convincingly than that.
As for Sean O’Malley, he is one of the biggest punchers in the 135 lb division. But we shouldn’t be fooled into thinking he’s just a big hitter. As well as having punching power, he also has quick hands and can land swift stinging combinations that put his opponents on the back foot.
And when it comes to wrestling, O’Malley may not have the skills of Sterling, but he shouldn’t be underestimated in this department. This is also the case with O’Malley’s ability to wriggle free of takedowns.
Both fighters possess the legs and stamina to go the distance. Sterling has an exceptional record and as champion, rightly goes into the fight as the favorite.
The odds on Sean O’Malley look too good though. This is a guy who has wrestling skills, as well as fast movement and a big punch. Can he cause an upset? We believe he can. We think the odds on Sugar are too big, so it’s worth opposing the favorite and picking Sean O’Malley to win the fight.
Weili Zhang is very short at -320, but the Chinese fighter justifies these odds. Zhang has a 23-3-0 record in the UFC and is a vastly more experienced fighter than her Brazilian opponent.
There will be pressure on Zhang. This is the first time she will be defending the strawweight title she won from Carla Esparza at UFC 281 via submission with a rear-naked choke. She won’t want to blow it at the first time of asking.
Zhang’s opponent, Amanda Lemos, has a career record of 13–2-1. At 36 years of age, she is two years older than her opponent, but she is vastly inexperienced when you compare her record to that of Weili Zhang.
We fully expect Weili Zhang to win the fight, but we’re not sure she is great value at odds south of -300.
In the method of victory betting, Zhang is +325 to win on points, +145 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, and +325 to win via submission.
Of Zhang’s 23 wins, 19 have come within the distance. And in her last six fights, four have had an early finish. Amanda Lemos has only seen three of her 16 fights go the distance, and she is not renowned for going deep.
We think a bet on Weili Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +145 is the best betting pick for this fight.
See below the best Las Vegas sportsbooks, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
