Alexandre Pantoja takes on Steve Erceg in the main event at UFC 301 on Saturday. UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is putting his belt on the line against Erceg. Pantoja is the favorite at -185. The Challenger is +155. In our latest UFC betting picks we tell you who to get your money on to win the fight.
The latest UFC pay-per-view show comes from Brazil. It will be hard-pressed to live up to UFC 300, but there is still an explosive card with plenty of local talent on show.
The co-main event is a bantamweight showdown between Jonathan Martinez and two-time UFC Featherweight Champion José Aldo. The legendary Brazilian Aldo is the underdog at +130, with Martinez at -160.
Also on the main card is a light heavyweight battle between Anthony Smith (+375) and Vitor Petrino (-550), along with two middleweight clashes between Michel Pereira (-550) and Ihor Potieria (+375) and Caio Borralho (-550) against Paul Craig (+375).
The latest UFC Vegas betting odds have the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, as the betting favorite. Pantoja is -185 for the victory. The challenger, Steve Erceg, is +155. Erceg is the outsider. But not a huge one.
In the totals betting, the over 4.5 rounds is +105, and under 4.5 rounds is -135. More betting options from different bookmakers are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
Brazil’s Alexandre Pantoja has an MMA career record of 27-5. He’s on a winning streak of five, and this will be his second defense of the belt he won by defeating Brandon Moreno by split decision at UFC 290 in July 2023.
His most recent fight was his only defense of the belt, a win over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December 2023. Pantoja won by unanimous decision.
Alexandre Pantoja’s fight history shows that ten of his 27 wins have come by submission. He has won eight times by KO and nine times by decision. His five defeats all came by decision.
The champion is a clean hitter, but his main strengths are his grappling skills and high cardio.
His style is to use his striking ability to soften up opponents and take them to the floor. On the canvas is where Pantoja is at his most dangerous, and it’s a tactic he is almost certain to employ against Erceg.
Steve Erceg has an MMA career record of 12-1. The 28-year-old Australian is new to the UFC, and the title fight will be only his fourth fight in the promotion.
For Erceg to be fighting for a belt within the organization within such a short space of time is slightly surprising. But it also shows that the promotion likes what it sees and knows Erceg is a box office figure and a talented fighter who can go a long way.
Erceg’s career breakdown shows he is a good all-round fighter who can win by any method. Six of his 12 wins are by submission, with four decisions and two knockouts. His one defeat was by decision.
Like Pantoja, Erceg can grapple on the mat. He isn’t afraid of attempting a takedown, but we wonder if he is as accomplished on the mat as his Brazilian opponent is.
Don’t be fooled by Erceg’s career record of just two KO wins. He can certainly strike, as Matt Schnell can no doubt testify.
Erceg’s second-round KO of Schnell in March this year was his most recent fight, and his Performance of the Night win played a large part in getting the No.10 ranked fighter in the 125-pound division his shot at the title this Saturday.
The title bout is a homecoming fight for Alexandre Pantoja, who hasn’t fought in Rio de Janeiro since 2013 when he defeated Lincoln de Sá Oliveira at Shooto Brazil 45.
Can he handle the pressure? Most certainly.
The Brazilian had a sticky start to his UFC career, losing three of his first nine fights. Since then, he has established himself within the promotion, winning five on the spin. So don’t expect the home favorite to wilt under the added pressure this Saturday.
Steve Erceg can cause the champion problems. He demonstrated his striking ability in his last fight, and Pantoja will have no doubt noted this.
Erceg’s recent KO win could affect Pantoja’s game plan on Saturday if the idea is to fight on the front foot, looking for the takedown. Employing this tactic could leave the champion open to being countered.
Ultimately, we feel Pantoja’s extra UFC experience will tell in this fight. Steve Erceg may be more dynamic, but he has never been five rounds in his career inside the octagon.
Pantoja knows how to take a fight deep and get the job done. Erceg’s best chance would be to get the job done early. A KO win for the underdog at +375 may be a good side wager.
But for our main betting pick, we are going for Pantoja to win. If you want to get better odds, take him to win by submission at +260.
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