Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2 is the new main event at UFC 303. Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler was the original booking. But after the Irishman was forced to pull out, the UFC moved fast to schedule a rematch between Pereira and Prochazka. Alex Pereira won the first fight. In our latest UFC betting picks we tell you if history will repeat itself, or if Prochazka can gain revenge.
We were never convinced that the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler bout would materialize and so it proved after McGregor had to pull out with an injury. In its place, the UFC has booked a rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.
The fight is for the UFC light heavyweight championship. Alex Pereira is the champion. He won the vacant title at UFC 295 last November with a TKO win over Prochazka.
Jiri Prochazka is the former light heavyweight champion. He didn’t lose the belt in the octagon, he had to vacate due to injury after he defeated Glover Teixeira at UFC 275 in 2022.
As a result of the injury, Prochazka didn’t get to defend the title. The next time he fought for the belt was in his bout against Pereira for the then-vacant title, which he lost.
By a stroke of sheer fortune, the former champion has been given another chance to win the title back sooner than he may have expected.
In the latest UFC Vegas betting odds, Alex Pereira is the favorite to defend his light heavyweight title. On the money line, Pereira is -130. Jiri Prochazha is +100.
The odds are slightly closer than we expected. The reason for this could be Prochazka’s willingness to take a risk to win, or it could be simply that the UFC betting sites believe that the lack of preparation time for both men slightly levels the playing field.
In the method of victory market, a win for Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ is favored at +110. Prochazka is +200.
To win by submission, Prochazka is the favorite at +1000, with Pereira at a massive +2800. The bookmakers don’t see the champion going down the grappling route.
The fight going the distance looks unlikely as well. For a points win, Pereira is +650 and Prochazka is +750.
The total rounds spread is 1.5. The fight lasting Over 1.5 rounds is -160 and under is +130. Finally, it is -450 on the fight not to go the distance, and +300 on the fight making it to the end of the 5th round.
More betting options from different bookmakers are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best sites for UFC betting.
Alex Pereira has a mixed martial arts record of just 10-2, but don’t let that fool you. Pereira is an experienced 36-year-old fighter from Brazil. He is an accomplished kickboxer and a big-hitting cruiserweight in boxing.
His limited appearances in MMA haven’t limited his progress. After joining the UFC in 2021, Pereira won the middleweight championship against Israel Adesanya in just his fourth fight in the promotion. He gave the belt up to the same opponent in his fifth fight, but then immediately stepped up to light heavyweight, where he is four from four.
In his most recent fight, Pereira defeated ex-UFC champion Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 with a first-round KO. Eight of his 10 wins in MMA have come by KO. Two by decision.
Jiri Prochazka is far more experienced in MMA with a 30-4-1 professional record. The first thing to note from the 31-year-old Czech’s Resume is he has only gone the distance twice in his 35 fights. One ended in a draw, the other a unanimous decision win.
The last time Prochazka went the distance was in 2016. He is the ultimate entertainer in the octagon with a do-or-die attitude that makes for entertaining fights.
He has won 26 of his 30 fights with knockouts, three by submission, and just the one on the scorecards. Three of his four defeats have come by knockout, the other by submission.
Both of these men are big hitters. The main difference between the two is Pereira’s leg kicks, which will give the champion a massive advantage when the two meet on Saturday.
Pereira will use his leg kicks to keep Prochazka at bay. The challenger will know they’re coming. But they are so hard to defend against that it’s debatable if he can stop them.
If Prochazka focuses too much on defending the leg kicks, he leaves himself open to body and headshots. He has to find a way to impose himself on Pereira, rather than trying to fend off the attacks from the Brazilian.
To do this, we expect Prochazka will try and end the fight early. The longer it goes on, the more he will get worn down by the leg kicks. Therefore, a wager on the fight ending in under 1.5 rounds at +130 could be a good way to go.
For a fight-winner pick, we have to go with Alex Pereira. He is the more accomplished fighter. And we feel he will be too smart and street-wise for the more reckless, risk-taking Prochazka.
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