Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill are to meet in the main event of UFC 300. The pair are headlining the show from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with Pereira the warm favorite to win the Light Heavyweight title showdown. In our latest UFC betting picks, we look ahead to the fight, bring you the latest betting odds, and also tell you who will win the main event.
This will be Alex Pereira’s first defense of his UFC Light Heavyweight belt, which he claimed with a hard-fought TKO victory over Jiri Prochazka last November for the vacant title.
Jamahal Hill is a former UFC Light Heavyweight title holder. He won the title last January with a decision win over Glover Teixeira. But he was forced to vacate the title in July after an injury to his Achilles put him out of action.
Pereira’s clash with Hill isn’t the only title up for grabs on a stacked night of action from Vegas. Also putting their titles on the line is Zhang Weili (-360), who will be defending her Women’s Strawweight title against Yan Xiaonan (+295), and Justin Gaethje (-210), who will be defending his men’s Lightweight title against Max Holloway (+180).
One other contest that catches the eye is another Lightweight showdown. This one is between Charles Oliveira (+190) and Arman Tsarukyan (-225).
The latest betting lines show the bookmakers believe the main event will be a close-run fight. Currently, they favor the champion Alex Pereira at -145, with Jamahal Hill at +125. Those odds are far from suggesting this fight is a done deal.
The best UFC betting sites have more Pereira vs. Hill betting options. They can be found below on our UFC odds table.
Well, where do you start with Alex Pereira? He’s a 36-year-old Brazilian who has already held two belts in the UFC despite only having a Mixed Martial Arts record of 9-2.
A kickboxer by trade, Pereira has fast-tracked himself to the top of the UFC organization. He has only fought seven times in the UFC, winning six and losing once.
His sole defeat came to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287. On that occasion, Adenanya scored a knockout win to reclaim the UFC Middleweight title he lost to Pereira at UFC 281 five months earlier.
Other wins in the UFC have come against big names like Sean Strickland, Jan Błachowicz, and most recently, Jiří Procházka at UFC 295. Within the UFC organization, Pereira’s six wins have been by four knockouts and two decisions. His only defeat was by KO.
Jamahal Hill is a 32-year-old American with a 12-1-0-1 record in MMA. The former Light Heavyweight champion is one of the cleanest strikers in the UFC, with seven of his 12 wins coming by way of knockout.
Hill’s other five wins have all been by decision, with his one loss coming by knockout. In his most recent fight, Hill defeated Glover Teixeira by unanimous decision at UFC 283.
The win came about by the ferocious pace set by Hill, which never allowed Teixeira to settle, and resulted in Hill winning the vacant Light Heavyweight title (he later had to relinquish) that he is about to fight for again.
We’ve already seen in the latest UFC Vegas betting odds that the bookmakers have this down as a close fight. The chances are, it won’t last long. Maybe this is why the bookies have it close, as an out-and-out brawl could be more of a 50/50 contest.
We feel there’s more to this fight than it just being a slugfest.
For a start off, Pereira has far superior leg-kicking power. Hill doesn’t have a chance of defending himself in this area. And despite leg kicks not directly affecting the Achilles area, the quality of Pereira’s kicks could become a factor if there are any lingering weaknesses in Hill’s legs after such a serious injury.
Another factor here is the length of time that Jamahal Hill has been out of the Octagon. His last competitive fight was in January 2023. Pereira has fought three times since then. And all against high-quality opposition.
Jamahal Hill has a chance. He is well able to finish any opponent off with his relentless striking. But Alex Pereira has more going in this favor. He is also well able to knock out his opponents, he has a ridiculous advantage with his leg kicks and is more battle-hardened in recent months.
Jamahal Hill is coming back from a serious injury. This is some fight to be walking straight into. If he is to win, it will be a stunning comeback. But after weighing up all the options, the only pick to win the fight can be Alex Pereira. For the better odds, take Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
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