After a weekend off for FA Cup action, the Premier League is back in business this weekend with matchday 21 of 38. While Manchester United vs Tottenham is a major clash on Sunday, Saturday also brings a massive affair between title-holders Manchester City and Newcastle. The kick-off is scheduled for 12:30 PM EST at St. James’ Park. City is in good form at the moment and just hammered Huddersfield 5-0 in the FA Cup a few days ago. They’re also fresh off winning the Club World Cup. The Magpies are in poor shape at the moment but did defeat Sunderland in cup play last weekend. Below, find the Newcastle vs Manchester City picks.
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City is the clear favorite here with -175 moneyline odds for an implied win probability of 63.64%. Newcastle comes back at +463 and has a mere 17.76% chance of grabbing three points on Saturday on home soil. A draw is priced at +352. The Cityzens were unbeaten in 10 meetings with the Magpies before losing 1-0 in the Carabao Cup back in September.
After earning a spot in the Champions League last season, things have not gone to plan for Newcastle this term. Eddie Howe’s men crashed out in the group stages of Europe’s most prized competition and currently sit in ninth place in the Premier League table. Yes, injuries have played their part, but the reality is the Magpies aren’t producing the goods. Newcastle is winless in three straight EPL outings, losing to Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, and league leaders Liverpool. They’ve scored three goals during that span while conceding eight times.
On a more positive note, the Magpies at least gained a bit of confidence back last Saturday against Sunderland in the FA Cup third round. An own goal from Daniel Ballard put the Premier League outfit ahead before Alexander Isak bagged a second-half brace. Sure, Sunderland isn’t exactly a difficult opponent, but simply getting a win was important for this club given how things have been going.
When it comes to health issues, there’s a lot. Callum Wilson will miss the City game due to a calf injury, while Joelinton picked up a knock vs Sunderland. Joe Willock and Jacob Murphy are two other notable players who are sidelined right now. Isak will continue to lead the line in the absence of Wilson.
City might be third in the standings and five points back of top spot, but they’re playing great football. Pep Guardiola’s men have now notched six wins in a row across all competitions and that’s without talisman Erling Haaland, who is sidelined with an injury. That being said, the Norwegian is expected to be fit for Saturday’s encounter. The Sky Blues were exhilarating against Huddersfield, with Phil Foden leading the way with a brace. Julian Alvarez and Jeremy Doku also hit the back of the net.
When it comes to Premier League action, Man City has a 12-4-3 record, scoring a league-best 45 times while allowing 21 goals. Haaland is the leading man up top for City with 14 goals and four assists and that’s only in 15 appearances. Alvarez is also enjoying a phenomenal campaign with six goals and six assists, while Foden has netted five and assisted another six. A lot of different players are capable for Guardiola’s squad.
The Sky Blues are relatively healthy currently. Kevin De Bruyne is finally back in the squad after missing months. Bernardo Silva, Kalvin Phillips, and Manuel Akanji were dealing with minor injuries, but all of them are expected to feature against Newcastle. City has looked vulnerable at times on the road though, going 6-1-3 as opposed to an unbeaten 6-3-0 record at the Etihad.
I don’t have much belief in Newcastle and City is flourishing. Plus, the return of Haaland will surely be key, even if he only comes on as a substitute. Given their track record against the Magpies as well, the moneyline is a solid pick here.
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