Assuming the pollsters are correct, Donald Trump looks set to be sworn in as the next President of the United States. Trump is ahead in the swing states, and the best political betting sites make him -200 to be President, with Kamala Harris now at +170.
But what happens when the results are called?
Trump still hasn’t conceded defeat from the poll in 2020. So if he loses, will he accept defeat this time? Furthermore, after Trump’s antics in 2020/21, will Harris or Biden accept the result?
BetUS is running a book on what will happen after the election. The current favorite is for Trump to win and for Biden/Harris to accept the result and concede. That outcome is -500.
Full market betting is below. For more information on who will win the race to the White House, please check out our odds on the 2024 US Presidential Election. And if you want to learn how to profit from betting on politics, check out our Political Betting Opportunities page.
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Sr. To Win & Either Harris/Biden To Accept & Concede | -500 | -500 | -500 |
| Trump Sr. To Win & Either Harris/Biden To Not Concede | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Harris To Win & Trump Sr. To Not Concede | -400 | -400 | -400 |
| Harris To Win & Trump Sr. To Accept & Concede | +250 | +250 | +250 |
With Donald Trump Sr. the favorite to win the election and return to the White House, this is the most likely outcome and is rightly the betting favorite.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have presented themselves as respectful candidates who follow the rule of law and try to do the right thing. Neither will want to tarnish their names by behaving in a manner they would regard as unfit for the great office of the President of America.
Trump’s antics in late 2020, and in particular, January 6th, 2021, have been a well-used attack line by the Democrats. This makes a dignified concession more likely than not.
This outcome seems unlikely. But is there a chance that Harris could refuse to accept the result and argue she isn’t as bad as Trump because she wasn’t behind an attempted insurrection?
Using this method would also keep clear blue water between herself and her Republican rival when it comes to legacy.
It does seem highly unlikely that Harris won’t concede defeat if the polls tell her she has lost. She probably has very little to gain by digging in as Trump did. The chances are that kind of behavior wouldn’t sit well with rank-and-file Democrats.
It would likely hurt her chances if she wants to run again in 2028.
But, if she decides that refusing to accept defeat is the right thing to do, Trump has already given her license to do so after his 2020 election antics.
This outcome surely needs to have an extra zero on the end.
There are odds of +170 on Harris to win available. Surely the odds of Trump accepting defeat and conceding would be longer than those of a Harris win.
Hell would likely have to freeze over for this to happen.
The odds say this is the second most likely outcome and we would have to agree.
There would also seem little point betting on this outcome, you may as well just bet on Kamala Harris to win the election at odds of +170.
If you are sensing now is the time to back Harris, you will like what Nate Silver has reported.
As pointed out by the renowned US election pollster, Trump’s rallies can generate negative headlines, and his rally at Madison Square Garden is one such example of this. He believes this is when things might start to go wrong.
Silver claims that Trump seemed to be doing better when he wasn’t generating too much negative publicity. He was benefiting from the Harris campaign stuttering and starting to fall apart.
Despite having the lead in some of the blue wall states, it wouldn’t take much for the polls to switch back in favor of Harris. Could Trump finally go too far and make a costly mistake in these final few days?
The one thing that is clear in this market is that bookmakers don’t think there is any chance that Trump Sr. will accept and concede defeat. It’s -500 on Harris and Biden to accept defeat, and +250 on Trump Sr. to do the same. The gap in the odds is huge.
Trump to win and Harris/Biden to accept defeat is -500. There seems no point betting on that when you can just back Trump to win at -200.
It looks unlikely that Harris wouldn’t concede. But this is politics in the 21st century, and anything can happen. So just play safe and back whoever you think will win the election.
Check out our partner table below, where you will find the best online betting sites in the USA in 2024 for political betting:
