The 2023 local elections have just taken place in the United Kingdom. And after another poor night at the polls for the ruling Conservative Party, might we already be waving goodbye to Rishi Sunak? We also thought it was the perfect time to have another look at the latest UK General Election betting odds and name our updated political betting picks.
The local elections took place on Thursday, May 4th, and they were held to elect local councils. All the usual parties stood candidates, such as the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Independents, and it’s fair to say that the Conservatives came off worst.
This resulted in the loss of a massive 48 councils for the Conservatives and a gain of 22 councils for Labour. The Liberal Democrats also gained 12 councils. It was not a good day for the Tory Party!
A few weeks prior to the local elections, Labour had been -450 to win the next General Election. Those odds now stand at -800. In other political futures betting markets, the odds on Yes to an Overall Majority were -140 when we picked it. Those odds have now been cut to -225.
This pick is purely based on Labour winning, as there is just about no chance of a Conservative overall majority. They could only stay in power by forming a minority government or coalition. Both of which seem very unlikely.
Below is the latest UK General Election betting odds to win the most seats. These odds are taken from some of the best online Las Vegas sportsbooks for political betting.
| 2024 UK General Election; Most Seats Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | -800 | -800 | -800 |
| Conservatives | +425 | +425 | +425 |
| Liberal Democrats | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 |
Depending on which way these results are spun depends on how bad the results sound. On the one hand, the Conservatives were expecting to lose around 1000 seats, but on the flip side, they don’t appear to have all gone to Labour.
This gives the Conservatives something to cling to ahead of the upcoming General Election. The fact that many of these seats didn’t go to Labour suggests people don’t believe in Keir Starmer and his policies.
But even though that might be true, Starmer’s Labour Party is still -800 to win the most seats at the Next General Election. In a two-horse race, the Conservative Party is next in the betting at +425, with the Liberal Democrats at +12500.
Move that onto the betting to be the next Prime Minister, and Keir Starmer is now -500, with Rishi Sunak at +333. To show how crazy the situation has become in the Conservative Party, the third favorite in the betting to be next Prime Minister is now Boris Johnson at +2500.
For that to happen, the Conservatives would have to have yet another leadership election (they’ve already had two since the last General Election).
So, these odds practically say that the Conservatives would need to conclude that the next General Election is lost. They then think, what the hell, let’s take a gamble by putting Boris Johnson back in charge – and hoping he can pull off a miracle.
Even with the crazy politics we see from both sides of the pond these days, that would take some leap of faith.
So, with limited political betting opportunities available in the 2024 UK General Election betting markets, where can we find a good value betting pick?
In 2017, Labour had a vote share percentage of 40%. But in 2019, that collapsed to just 32.1%, thanks to the then leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and his stance on the result of the EU Referendum. Labour had gotten away with the Corbyn risk once, but not a second time!
In the same period, the Conservative vote share in 2017 was 42.4%. It only went up to 43.6% in 2019, which still resulted in a huge win for the Conservative Party. Mainly thanks to the drift away from what was then a toxic Labour Party.
Comparing that to what happened in the recent local elections gives us something to make our political picks on. The most up-to-date local election vote share analysis from Sky News suggests that Labour had 36% of the vote share, with the Conservatives at 29%, the Liberal Democrats at 18%, and others at 17%.
Comparing local election results with General Election results isn’t an exact science. But it is a marker of sorts!
In the latest vote share betting, BetOnline has Labour’s spread at 45.5%, with over and under both at -120. As for the Conservatives, the line is set at 32.5%, again with over and under at -120.
The majority of the 17% that voted for others will switch to one of the main parties. Will enough voters switch to the Conservatives to get them above the 32.5%?
We think they will. And to further help the Conservative Party’s cause, a lot of their voters probably didn’t even turn up to vote in the local elections, many disenchanted with the direction the party is heading in.
But come to a General Election, and we believe a lot of those voters will be out in force. And we can see the Conservative vote share being over 32.5% and make that our betting pick.
