American politics is in the news again. Ron DeSantis has finally gone on the attack against Donald Trump Sr, there are rumors that Trump himself is about to be indicted, and Nikki Haley has made her move to become the Republican nominee. So how has this all affected the markets in the betting to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 Presidential Election? Let’s have a closer look at our latest political futures.
After the disastrous midterm results in 2022, the odds of Ron DeSantis being the Republican nominee for 2024 dramatically shortened. Trump was blamed for the midterm results, and DeSantis was the original benefactor.
After the midterm results, Trump announced his intention to run for the Republican nomination. At this time, Ron DeSantis was -105 to be the Republican nominee, while the top-tier US bookmakers had Trump at +160. Then at the turn of the year, DeSantis had shortened into -150, and Trump was out at +230.
| Republican Nominee for 2024 Election Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Snr | +100 | -115 | +100 |
| Ron DeSantis | +130 | +130 | +130 |
| Nikki Haley | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Tim Scott | +2500 | +2300 | +2500 |
| Glenn Youngkin | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 |
| Mike Pence | +3000 | +2800 | +3000 |
| Mike Pompeo | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Ted Cruz | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Kristi Noem | +6500 | +6500 | +6500 |
| Liz Cheney | +6500 | +6500 | +6500 |
But since then, the odds have flipped back in Trump’s favor. The former President is now +100 to be the Republican nominee, with DeSantis next at +130. Nikki Haley has also been a big mover in this market. At the start of the year, she was +2000. She is now the third favorite at +1400.
The shift in the betting odds is likely down to recent polling by Emerson College that showed Trump posting a large lead in the 2024 Republican primary.
This could also be what’s finally encouraging DeSantis to go on the attack—something he did for the first time this week.
Despite Trump leading the way in the betting to win the Republican nomination, DeSantis is shorter in the latest betting odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election. Joe Biden is favorite at +200, then it is DeSantis at +275, and Trump at +325.
But then, when you look at the Winning Party betting, it is the Republicans who are the favorites at -120. The Democrats are +100. Our latest political betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline. You can learn more about them in our BetOnline sportsbook review.
The disparity between all these markets must be down to the uncertainty of who will win the Republican nomination. And this is a question only the GOP can answer.
The big problem facing Republicans seems to be that they are torn between two ideologies. On the one hand, they seem to prefer Donald Trump. But on the other hand, they seem to think that Ron DeSantis represents their party’s best chance of winning the 2024 Presidential Election.
So what do party members do when selecting their nomination? And that’s exactly why this market is so up in the air.
And things could be about to get a whole lot worse as well. As we alluded to earlier, DeSantis now seems to be on the front foot, going after Trump. So, things are set to get messy when the gloves completely come off.
Supporters of both men – and let’s not forget, DeSantis does have a lot of support in the GOP – are likely to buy into the increasingly divisive rhetoric, and who knows where that might lead. Could it be that Republican members that support Trump but don’t believe he can deliver the White House fall in behind a third candidate instead of DeSantis?
Could this be why there seems to be increased interest in Nikki Haley? Although the former governor of South Carolina has had a checkered past with Trump, she has shown an ability to walk the tightrope required not totally to back him, and not reject him.
Haley announced her intention to run in February this year. As someone who has managed to not alienate herself against one side of the party or the other, she could be seen as a potential ‘Never Don and Never Ron’ alternative.
Alternatively, Haley’s odds may only have shortened as she is the only other serious candidate to have stated she intends to stand. This opens up betting possibilities, as it suggests that the current market is phony, and it will only be true when all candidates have put up or shut up.
So could this mean that when we’re looking for a political betting pick, the best thing to do is place a small wager on a long shot? It may well currently be the best strategy.
At the moment, the market is too unpredictable. And things are going to change over the next few months. So to assume that this is going to be a straight shootout between Don and Ron could be shortsighted. We need to look for value when selecting picks.
And this brings names like Nikki Haley (+1400) and Tim Scott (+2500) into the equation.
