After announcing his intention to stand in the 2024 General Election, Nigel Farage looks set to win the Clacton Constituency and take a seat in the next UK Parliament. The often controversial Farage is now a huge figure in global politics. Can he win and finally get into the House of Commons? In our latest politics betting picks, we take a look and bring you the answer.
Nigel Farage has tried and failed on seven occasions to win a seat in the UK Parliament.
Ahead of the 2024 UK General Election, Farage had stated he didn’t intend to stand again.
Bizarrely, Farage was instead claiming he was going to focus his efforts on helping Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Elections. That was seen as an elaborate story to get out of standing in the UK and being embarrassed for an eighth time.
Trump and Farage indeed have a close relationship. The UK Reform Party leader has previously spoken at Trump rallies in support of his US ally, even getting around Covid restrictions to turn up to one in 2020.
But despite the closeness of their relationship, no one in the UK really bought into the theory that Trump’s campaign was the reason Farage wasn’t standing.
Then, on June 3rd, Farage sensationally announced he was to take over as the leader of the Reform Party from Richard Tice and stand in the UK General Election.
Nigel Farage not only announced his decision to complete a U-turn and stand at the UK General Election, he also announced he would be standing in the constituency of Clacton.
The Clacton Constituency was created in 2010. It was first won by a hardline Conservative, Douglas Carswell, who subsequently left the Tory Party to join UKIP (then run by Nigel Farage) and latterly stood as an independent MP.
In 2017, Giles Watling of the Conservative Party won the seat from Carswell and has remained the constituency MP since. To retain his seat in 2024, Watling is the second favorite at +350 with Bovada.
The favorite to win the seat is Nigel Farage at -500. The only other candidate in the running to win is Jovan Owusu-Nepaul of the Labour Party. He is +800.
Check out the latest odds for plenty of political betting opportunities in the UK on our betting table. And for the latest on the US vote later this year, check out our page dedicated to the odds on the 2024 US Presidential Election.
| Candidates |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage (REF) | -500 | -500 | -500 |
| Giles Watling (CON) | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Jovan Owusu-Nepaul (LAB) | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Matthew Bensilum (LIB) | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Natasha Osben (GRN) | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
The general consensus is that the Conservative Party will get wiped out in this General Election.
Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour Party are the -3000 favorites to form a majority UK Government.
All sides seem to be ganging up on Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party. They looked finished.
So if the inevitable happens, then Rishi Sunak will be replaced as the leader of the Conservative Party, triggering a new battle to be the next leader of the party.
Despite not even being a member of the Conservative Party, Nigel Farage is the third favorite to be the next Tory Party leader.
Kemi Badenoch is the favorite at +275. She is followed by Penny Mordaunt at +700 and Farage at +800.
Farage has committed to being the leader of Reform for the next five years. But he has made major U-turns in the past, notably in the last month. So don’t take that as a given.
The Tory Party is a far bigger brand than Reform. And it is likely to undergo a major transformation after the General Election. Could this open the door to Farage potentially becoming the next party leader?
Maybe it could. A Reform and Conservative pact could be seen as the best way to take Labour on. Especially if Keir Starmer wins the predicted super-majority that the polls are currently predicting.
Any pact would likely be under the Conservative brand, and Farage would almost certainly be able to lead the party as he would already have a seat in the UK Parliament if – as likely – he wins in Clacton.
A lot will have to change for Nigel Farage to become leader of the Tory Party, so we will let that bet rest for now.
But when it comes to Clacton Constituency, Farage looks to be winning with a huge majority. The Tory vote share is set to be down a whopping 51%. Even if that beating doesn’t materialize, it will still be a comfortable win for Farage
The Labour and Lib Dem vote is flat-lining. There is no competition from either. It’s a straight fight between the Reform Party and the Conservative Party.
Most voters are sick of the Conservative Party. Add in the extra stardust that Nigel Farage brings, and a win for the Reform Party candidate on July 4th, looks as certain as you can get.
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