The latest odds in the next world leader to be booted out of office make for interesting reading. The current betting favorite is Benjamin Netanyahu (+150). But as we’re about to explain in our latest politics betting picks, he isn’t the obvious choice to go next.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin was the leading player in this market. But after the October terrorist atrocities in Israel, attention turned to Benjamin Netanyahu, who was heavily criticized for not protecting his citizens.
The Israeli leader now heads the market, with Putin drifting in the opposite direction. The Russian leader looks safe for now.
Recent events have had a massive impact on this betting market.
Benjamin Netanyahu is now the favorite to be the next world leader to leave office at +150. His closest betting rival is now British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at +200. And as you will later find out, there’s more than one reason why he is so short in the betting.
Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden feature in this market at +700, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy just outside the betting favorites at +1000. Putin, for so long shorter odds than his Ukrainian counterpart, is now out at +2500.
| Leader |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | +150 | +150 | +150 |
| Rishi Sunak | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Justin Trudeau | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Joe Biden | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Nicolas Maduro | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Vladimir Putin | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu is one of politics’ great survivors. He was originally Israeli Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999. He returned to office in 2009, where he stayed until 2021. Then in true Netanyahu style, he returned to the job again in 2022.
He is under supreme pressure at the moment. But whatever the issues he faces, he always seems to find a way of surviving.
It would be a risky bet to wager on Netanyahu leaving office at +150. And if Donald Trump returns to office in the US, and the latest betting odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election suggest he will, Netanyahu will feel even more empowered.
This market should be settled before any potential Trump return. And that’s because British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated that he will be calling a UK General Election in 2024.
But don’t take this as a given, as he can – under UK law – hold off until January 28th, 2025.
It is within Sunak’s gift to call a General Election any day of the year up until December 17th. When he does, there will be 25 working days between the announcement and the General Election (that’s where the January 28th date comes from).
The chances of Sunak waiting this long are slim, though. He knows he’s drinking in a last-chance saloon, and if he spots even the smallest glimmer of hope, he will call a General Election at that moment.
The latest betting has Rishi Sunak at -900 to lead his Party into the General Election and +500 for it to be someone else.
Those odds expose the possibility that Rishi Sunak may be forced into calling a General Election by his own Tory Party. Such has been the crazy nature of politics in recent years, Sunak’s Conservative Party has had five different leaders while in power. It sounds mad, but it’s still possible that certain fringes of the party might push for a sixth.
A lot of Tory MPs are set to lose their seats to members of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party at the General Election.
They may decide that a reckless throw of the dice is worth the risk and look to oust Sunak and fight the General Election under a new leader. This would either force Sunak’s hand to call an early General Election. Or would force him out of office before he has the chance?
Another thing going against Sunak’s chances of lasting in office is the deep unpopularity of his Tory Party.
When Sunak calls a General Election, it’s going to take a monumental turnaround for him to win. At the moment, the polls are suggesting that his Conservative Party could lose up to 300 seats and be virtually wiped out.
These are worst-case scenarios, but they do highlight how dire his position is.
And while things don’t look great for Netanhayu either, he will have to be forced out of office. We already know that he is a political survivor. And forcing him out will take some doing.
Political betting opportunities can be hard to find in this fast-moving world. But a bet on Rishi Sunak would appear to offer far better value than a bet on Benjamin Netanyahu does …. at this moment in time!
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