As Fall begins, the NASCAR Playoffs head to Las Vegas. This week is the first of three races to pare the Round of 12 down to the Round of 8. The South Point 400 takes place on Sunday night as we look at some potential NASCAR picks.
The top twelve drivers are listed below in our NASCAR Odds for this week’s race from Las Vegas. It would appear Kyle Larson has the best chance to win this week.
| South Point 400 Odds |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +300 | +300 |
| Kyle Busch | +600 | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +750 | +750 |
| Joey Logano | +850 | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +900 | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +900 | +900 |
| Kevin Harvick | +900 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1500 | +1500 |
| William Byron | +1600 | +1600 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 | +2000 |
| Christopher Bell | +2500 | +2500 |
Kyle Larson tops the list in the odds for NASCAR Picks this week and the numbers are now coming in as low as +300. The Hendricks Motorsports Racing driver leads the way among his three teammates. After all, the No. 5 car won his sixth race of the season last week at Bristol.
Even last week, Larson found a way to lead a race-high 175 laps. It was a masterful job done by him to lead so often. However, it was during that long run where the No. 5 car just had a little more than everyone else. He was ticking off fast lap after fast lap. Then, once he found a way past Kevin Harvick. All Harvick could do was give him a gentle tap as Larson was on his way to another checkered flag.
Larson excels quite well on these tracks with low maintenance and high-performance dynamics. His average finish at Las Vegas is 5.83 over his last half-dozen appearances. That includes a win and five top-ten results. His driver rating on intermediate tracks is second over the last three years at 108.4.
There is some concern with Larson in the sense that the driver will do literally anything to win. Everyone saw this in Darlington and then at Bristol. The No. 5 driver using the wall and slingshot passing techniques is something out of the earlier days of NASCAR.
Again, Larson has only led 8.03% of the laps in Vegas the past three seasons but there is a BUT…
Toal speed rankings on 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 show Larson to be the fastest at three of the four races. He was tied for second in the other.
This is why Kyle Larson headlines the top NASCAR Picks from Las Vegas on Sunday night. His car is made for the tri-oval on the surface especially.
It is easy to see why Brad Keselowski is an interesting shot again. No driver has finished better average position-wise at Las Vegas over the last three years. Yes, the Ford has finished 4.86 compared to Larson’s 5.83. Even on intermediate tracks, Keselowski is top-six over the last three years.
Now, the Team Penske driver makes no secret the sense of urgency he has over the next couple of weeks. The Charlotte ROVAL is the third race in this set and a track where Keselowski has performed woefully poor on.
Again, this is why things get a little spicier on Sunday night. Keselowski did well to finish in sixth at Bristol while not faring so well till later in the race. That might happen again in Las Vegas. It will be the long run that could prove pivotal for Keselowski.
Keselowski would be our medium-shot NASCAR pick at +900. He is nestled with three other drivers including Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., and Kevin Harvick.
With all that said, our NASCAR picks headliner this week is still the No. 5 of Kyle Larson.
Alex Bowman could try to surprise everyone again. This would tilt the NASCAR Picks a good bit because Bowman comes in at +2000 currently.
Right now, the Hendricks Motorsports Racing Driver stands in seventh place but just two points over the ninth-place Joey Logano. It is kind of funny in a way. There is Bowman sandwiched among the three Hendricks (6th to 8th). Something funny about consistency and Alex Bowman?
Bowman has two top-ten finishes over his last six races there. If one is going to take a risk, the No. 48 car may again be worth it. After all, Bowman did go on a late run at Bristol. He rose from 16th to 5th.
For NASCAR Picks, our bet here is to get enticed a bit again by Alex Bowman. This may be his best shot at advancing or getting a leg up in advancing to the Round Of 8. He is a long shot but then again, so was William Byron at Bristol. Look at what happened. Byron managed to get on the podium.
The NASCAR Picks among the medium-shot drivers should not involve Joey Logano. Despite this, the No. 22 does have success on this track over the past three seasons. The Team Penske driver has six top-ten results and two wins in seven races. However, looking at this year paints a different picture.
High-performance tracks have not been too kind to Logano. Since the first Atlanta race, Logano’s best finish has been 15th. That is right. 15th. The key for the Team Penske driver is not to get caught up in traffic during restarts. That has occurred twice this year already.
The question becomes can Logano even contend. He comes in with shortened +850 odds and represents arguably the worst medium-shot among the NASCAR Picks on Sunday night. There are better options to look at like Martin Truex Jr. or one of the other Hendricks perhaps.
Take Kyle Larson to win the South Point 400 at Las Vegas on Sunday night.
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