It’s almost time for the annual championship match of the Major League Soccer season, and this year it’s the Portland Timbers and New York City who will be playing off for the MLS Cup.
This match is the culmination of the MLS Playoffs, also known as the postseason.
The final sees the winner of the Eastern Conference Final play the winner of the Western Conference Final for the right to be called the MLS Champions.
This match is the defining moment of the season!
For the first time in their history, the Timbers will have home-field advantage at Providence Park.
The home advantage is given to the team with the most points accumulated across the season. The Timbers managed 55 points to NYC’s 51 points.
Before we get onto the MLS Cup odds, let’s take a look at the two teams and how they got to the final.
The road to this moment has clearly been a long one, and at various stages of the season, a troubled one – for both teams.
Both sides have played 34 MLS regular-season matches, along with three rounds of Audi 2021 MLS Cup playoffs matches.
The regular season started back on April 16th, and a lot has happened in those 7 months.
The Timbers finished fourth in the Western Conference. It was a pretty comfortable fourth position as well, they had a 6 points lead over fifth-placed Minnesota United.
The Timbers rarely looked like ever winning the conference though. They did close in on Seattle and Sporting KC mid-season when they were the dominant two sides, but it was a brief flirt with the top of the table.
Giovanni Savarese’s side play an open and attacking style of soccer, and as a result, fans were treated to a season with zero 0-0 draws.
In total, the Timbers scored in 29 of their 34 regular season matches.
This led to them being the second top scorers in the Western Conference with 56 goals, just two behind Sporting KC, who found the net 58 times.
The open style has also led to them conceding a lot of goals, 52 in total. Only Real Salt Lake (conceded 54 times) has a worse defensive record of the 14 teams who qualified for the playoffs.
Like the Timbers, New York City also finished fourth in their respective conference.
Unlike the Timbers, it wasn’t a comfortable fourth-placed finish though.
NYC required a strong finish to grab a playoff spot. This included a five-match unbeaten run at the end of the regular season that saw them pick up 11 points.
A strong defense is a cornerstone on which New York’s success is built. Ronny Deila’s side conceded only 36 goals in the regular season.
Just three sides in the Eastern Conference managed better than that.
Further underlining what a well-balanced side the Boys In Blue are is their offensive record. They managed to score 56 times last season, only runaway conference winners, New England Revolution scored more goals (65).
Both these sides like a goal, so I think it’s good value to bet on over 2.5 goals.
In the betting to win the trophy, the top soccer betting sites in the USA are struggling to separate the two teams.
New York City is just the slight betting favorite, but if you look at how close the betting odds are with BetOnline, you can see how tight this match is.
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The odds are equally tight in 90 minutes betting on the Moneyline.
This all adds up to a great final though. Going into the match, not knowing who will win makes it a much more exciting event.
For me, it’s a case of making a call between the most balanced side, NYC, and the more attacking side, Portland – but the Timbers do have the home-field advantage.
I do think the better of the two sides has been New York City, and that’s why I make them my pick to win the 2021 MLS Cup.
But what about the 90 minutes of betting market?
It’s fair to say that the Timbers have tightened up defensively postseason, they have only conceded 1 goal in the playoffs.
But I would also argue that the Timbers have had the more generous route to the final.
They did have to beat Western Conference winners, Colorado Rapids, in the conference semi-final.
But the Rapids won the Western Conference more down to how poorly the Seattle Sounders and Sporting KC finished the season, than from being exceptional themselves.
New York City on the other hand had to overcome arguably the best team in the MLS, New England Revolution, on their way to the showpiece final.
New York is also eight matches unbeaten, compared to Portland’s six.
I can see New York City winning in the 90 minutes, and they are my pick to win the match in regular time.
