The next round of the 2023 F1 roadshow is the Miami Grand Prix from Florida this Sunday. And with Sergio Perez all of a sudden beginning to look like he could be a threat to Max Verstappen, we take a look at the Red Bull battle in our latest Formula 1 betting picks.
Okay, so maybe let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. But after thinking it was just going to be the Max Verstappen show this season, we can be forgiven for getting a touch excited at the prospect of an actual contest in this year’s F1 Drivers Championship.
The win by Sergio Perez in Azerbaijan last Sunday was his second of the 2023 season. This puts Perez level on wins with Max Verstappen (two each), and he is now only six points behind the double-world champion in the 2023 title race.
Can Perez maintain it? That remains to be seen. And this was also a subject addressed by his Team Principal, Christian Horner, who challenged Perez to repeat the form he has shown on the street circuits this year on the normal F1 tracks.
In his after-race comments, Horner also confirmed that until it was in the interests of the team, it was fine for his two drivers to continue to compete for the championship. So, does this mean we finally have a contest in the world title race? Or will normal service resume this weekend with another win for Verstappen? Let’s take a closer look.
The bookmakers certainly aren’t convinced that Sergio Perez is going to challenge Max Verstappen, that’s for sure. Last week the best Las Vegas sportsbooks already had Max Verstappen at -800 to win his third title in three years, and that’s exactly where he is this week. So they’re certainly not reading too much into the win from Perez in Baku.
Another thing going against Perez is possibly his showings at conventional F1 circuits, as mentioned by Christian Horner. There are still 19 races to go this season, and the vast majority will be on traditional F1 circuits. So if Perez can’t win on any of them, he simply won’t have a chance of winning the driver’s championship.
So what the next couple of weeks should show us is if Perez is just having a good spell on the street circuits or whether he is the real deal. If he is the real deal, the +800 available on him winning the driver’s championship will soon disappear.
In case anybody needs to know the other drivers’ odds to win the championship, they are Fernando Alonso at +2000, Lewis Hamilton at +2500, and Charles Leclerc at +5000. But they all look irrelevant at this moment in time.
In the betting to win the world championship without Verstappen, the odds on Sergio Perez have now been cut to -450. Lewis Hamilton is at +400, along with Fernando Alonso. Following his podium finish in Baku, Charles Leclerc is now into +700, having been a huge +3300 before Azerbaijan. That’s some shift in the betting.
In the latest Formula 1 betting to win the Miami Grand Prix, it’s Max Verstappen at -225 who leads the way. Verstappen is followed by his teammate Sergio Perez who is +300.
After the Red Bull pair, it’s Charles Leclerc at +1200 and Fernando Alonso at +1400. Lewis Hamilton and his off-the-pace Mercedes are next at +2500. Following Hamilton is Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz at +3300, and then it’s George Russell at +4000.
The odds suggest the top sportsbooks expect three different races within the actual race. It looks between Verstappen vs Perez for the win, with a separate battle between Leclerc and Alonso for the final place on the podium. We are leaving the rest to fight it out among themselves. More Las Vegas odds on the race can be found below on our F1 betting table.
| Formula 1; 2023 Miami Grand Prix Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -225 | -225 | -225 |
| Sergio Perez | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Fernando Alonso | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| George Russell | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Lance Stroll | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Lando Norris | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
Making money is the name of the game here, and after four races, and only two wins for Max Verstappen, we’re not going near him at -225. Sergio Perez has won two races this year on street circuits in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. He was a disappointing fifth in the street circuit in Australia, though.
We still believe this makes Sergio Perez worth the risk in Miami, though. So far this season, Verstappen has only won 50% of the races, and he is not a 50/50 bet at odds of -225. His odds are well below that, and that is a good enough reason to give him a wide berth.
The Dutchman may well win, so go easy if you are wagering against him. But for us, we believe his teammate is of better value. Perez is in good form, and he’s taking the fight to his Red Bull teammate. And because of this, we are making Sergio Perez our pick to win the 2023 Miami Grand Prix.
