It’s been a while since we have checked in on what’s happening in the world of UK politics, so with the ruling Conservative Party just having had their party conference, we thought now would be the ideal time. The Conservatives are now +500 second favorites to win the next election. They already look cooked. And as you are about to read in our latest political betting futures, the conversation is no longer about whether the Tories can win the next election but who will be their next leader after they lose.
As we’ve known for some time now, Politics on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean are in unprecedented times!
On one side of the pond, we are wondering what Donald Trump will next be in court for. Or if Joe Biden will fall over or make another high-profile gaff. While on the other side of the water, it’s now a case of wondering what on earth is happening to the Conservative Party.
Their 2023 party conference in Manchester was supposed to be a positive event that shaped the policies the Conservative Party is set to use in the upcoming UK General Election. Instead, it appears to have been used as a platform for leadership candidates – hoping to replace Rishi Sunak – to make their cases.
The event was hijacked. And as a result, the Tory Party looked like an even bigger mess than before the conference started. And this isn’t good for Rishi Sunak or the party as it hurtles toward the next General Election.
Unlike in the United States, where we all know when the next Presidential Elections will be, the UK is different.
As the law currently stands, a UK General Election needs to be held no later than January 2025. But between now and January 2025, it is within Rishi Sunak’s gift to call a General Election whenever he wants.
It’s currently unclear when that will be. But it’s expected to happen sometime in 2024.
At the moment, there is little to no chance of a General Election being called because Sunak’s Tory Party is doing so badly. It’s likely to happen when or if there is an upturn in Tory Party fortunes.
Recent polling has shown that the Conservatives have closed the gap between themselves and Labour to just 10%. It has been above 20% in recent months, but some of Sunak’s policies are starting to cut through, which has led to the gap narrowing.
Whether that trend will continue for much longer is debatable. And that makes it unlikely we will see a General Election anytime soon.
But as the latest betting shows, the closing of the gap in the opinion polls isn’t affecting the betting. The Tory Party is +500 to win, leaving them miles behind Labour (-900).
Not all hope is lost for Rishi Sunak, though. As we have seen in the betting odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election, these odds can quickly change. It might look good for Labour at the moment. But should that gap in the opinion polls continue to close, the betting may follow suit.
The betting market that is now vibrant and red hot is the one to be Rishi Sunak’s replacement.
The betting favorite is Kemi Badenoch at +275. Badenoch is regarded as a rising star in the party, and she sits ahead of Penny Mourdant (+350), who would be regarded more as a safe pair of hands. The current Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly is next at +600, with Gillian Keegan at +900 and Suella Braverman at +1000.
| Next Conservative Party Leader Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Penny Mordaunt | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| James Cleverly | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Gillian Keegan | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Suella Braverman | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Steve Barclay | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| David Frost | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Boris Johnson | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
There is always a character that comes from leftfield, leading to some good political betting opportunities.
But at the moment, the person making the biggest splash is the current Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. She has made some very controversial speeches about multiculturalism and immigration and is already looking to woo the right of the party. Braverman is at times openly contradicting her boss, Rishi Sunak, and already seems to have stolen a march on her leadership rivals.
Similar to Donald Trump, she sounds too controversial to win. But as Trump has proven, that narrative no longer applies.
Penny Mordaunt and James Cleverly look more like a safe pair of hands. And although tarnished by association, they don’t have baggage like Gillian Keegan and Braverman,
But the Tory Party currently seems so out of control that a safe pair of hands might not be what it wants. It’s starting to get to the point where suggesting that is similar to suggesting Liz Cheney leads the Republican Party.
There is still a lot of support within the party for Boris Johnson (+2000). Such is the crazy nature of politics, and it would be no shock to see him become the next Tory leader. And whilst that probably won’t secure an election win, the Tory Party currently looks crazy enough to try it.
But if calmness does descend on Conservative HQ, James Cleverly (+600) could be where the smart money goes. He’s been in some of the top jobs in Government. And as the current Foreign Secretary, he has experience of the international scene.
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