We’re getting closer to the start of the 2023 Formula 1 season. With Max Verstappen already heavily favored to win the driver’s championship, we’ve been searching high and low for some great alternative F1 betting picks.
With Max Verstappen already at -140 to win his third championship in three years, we need to look elsewhere for some value bets. If you think Verstappen will win the championship again this year, then backing him at the -140 available on him at the best Formula 1 Vegas betting sites may be the equivalent of buying money. But sport isn’t always as simple as that.
In this article, we have checked out the betting in the season match bets market. These are head-to-head markets between two drivers to see who will come out on top throughout the season. Before we move on to our season match bets, let’s first look at the betting to win the drivers’ championship in 2023.
The only F1 pre-season testing session takes place in Sakhir on February 23rd, 24th, and 25th. This may be the first indicator that will tell us if Verstappen is a genuine -140 shot or not. But for now, we can only assume that he is the racing certainty we’re being led to believe he is.
And as Toto Wolff of Mercedes has already said, “We have no doubt, when you are starting behind by half a second, it’s going to be difficult to catch up to great organizations like Red Bull and Ferrari.”
So, is this Wolff being realistic? Or is he simply playing mind games and trying to heap the pressure on Red Bull and Ferrari? If the betting markets are anything to go by, it’s probably a combination of the two.
If there were a genuine belief that Mercedes could beat Red Bull, then Verstappen would be longer than -140, and Hamilton would be shorter than +350. But on the flip side, Red Bull is +100 to win the Constructors Championship, and Mercedes is +160. So are the markets saying that the cars are of a similar standard, but Verstappen is the superior driver over Hamilton?
Behind Verstappen and Hamilton in the betting is Charles Leclerc at +400. There is a big gap before we get to the number two drivers of the three main teams, led by George Russell of Mercedes at +1000. These odds are taken from BetOnline, and you can read more about them in our BetOnline sportsbook review. Now onto our head-to-head bets.
| Formula 1; 2023 Drivers Championship Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -140 | -150 | -150 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Charles Leclerc | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| George Russell | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Sergio Perez | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Lando Norris | +10000 | +10000 | +9000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
Although it was a disappointing overall season for Mercedes last year, it wasn’t all doom and gloom for George Russell. He finished fourth in the driver’s championship, 35 points clear of Lewis Hamilton (who finished sixth), and he was also the only Mercedes driver to win a race – the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
As for Hamilton, he went winless for the first time in his career. Can he bounce back in 2023? Or are his best days behind him? We believe he will bounce back, and due to Russell’s good performances last year, Hamilton is a rather appealing looking -170 to outperform his teammate in 2023.
In a further sign that the best Las Vegas betting sites are expecting an improved performance from Mercedes, they are making George Russell their -200 favorite to beat Red Bull’s number two driver Sergio Perez.
Despite having the dominant car last season, Perez only managed two wins. Yes, he did have to drive for Max Verstappen at times. But given the difference in car quality, the Mexican only finished 30 points ahead of Russell, winning two races to the Mercedes drivers in one race.
This gap should have been bigger and that is why Russell looks like a good pick to outperform Perez in 2023.
Finally, can Sergio Perez outperform his number two rival at Ferreri, Carlos Sainz? We’re of the opinion that Perez under-achieves in Formula 1, but so does the Ferrari team.
But who will underperform the least in 2023? Last season Perez got 305 championship points, and Sainz just 246. He only beat Hamilton by six points.
Perez took the fight for second place in the championship against Charles Leclerc right down the final race of 2022, but winning only two in such a dominant car must have been extremely disappointing. As for Ferrari, Sainz only managed one win out of his team’s four victories. And he was well outperformed by his number two rival at Mercedes, George Russell.
So, with limited faith, we’re going to side with Perez to beat Sainz as our final F1 head-to-head betting pick.
