Gavin Newson is one of the names being touted to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Nominee after the President’s poor performance in the first 2024 Presidential Election debate. Newson, the current Governor of California, is one of the betting favorites. In our latest political futures, we look at his prospects of becoming the Democratic Nominee if Biden steps down.
Seeing in believing, and what was witnessed on Thursday wasn’t good if you are backing the Democrats and Joe Biden to win the 2024 Presidential Election.
The narrative for a long time has been that Joe Biden is too old to run the United States of America. Biden has long denied this is the case. But his performance in last Thursday’s debate with Donald Trump did little to shut down that narrative. It only served to back up the theory.
Biden’s performance was so poor the Democrat-friendly New York Times editorial board called on him to step down and let someone else take on Trump for the good of America.
At the time of writing, the New York Times may not have allowed time for the dust to settle on Biden’s performance. But after a handful of days, talk of replacing Biden has not gone away.
So with Biden on the ropes, who is the candidate most likely to replace him if he decides to stand down or the Democrats find a way to maneuver him off the ballot paper?
Joe Biden is still the betting favorite to be the Democratic Nominee. At the moment he is -275.
Compare that to Trump, who is -2500, with any other candidate at +800, and the difference is stark.
At this stage of proceedings, Biden should be locked in from a betting perspective, as Trump is for the Republicans. Odds of -275 say Biden is anything but.
The favorite alternatives to Biden in the betting are Kamala Harris at +600 and Gavin Newsom at +600. A name that refuses to go away and could be a game changer is Michelle Obama. She is +1000.
Also sitting on odds of +1000 is Gretchen Whitmer. Hillary Clinton is +2800. That would be extremely likely to happen, especially after 2016.
BetOnline has one more market on the Democratic Nominee. It is Biden against any other candidate. Biden is -275. Any other candidate is +160.
The latest betting on who will be the Democratic Nominee is on our odds table. As things stand, this market is offering plenty of political betting opportunities if Biden is to stand aside.
| Candidates |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -275 | -275 | -275 |
| Kamala Harris | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Gavin Newsom | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Michelle Obama | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
For more information on election betting, check out our page dedicated to the odds on the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Gavin Newsom is a 56-year-old American politician and businessman. Since 2019, he has been serving as the 40th governor of California.
The name of Newsom has been in the betting to be the Democratic Nominee for some time now. He is regarded as an experienced safe pair of hands, having previously been the Mayor of San Francisco, before his role as the state governor.
Newsom looks the part, he sounds the part, he isn’t damaged by his connections to Biden like Kamala Harris is, and he is young enough to have the energy to take on Trump. It’s clear to see why his name always crops up.
Gavin Newsom has remained loyal to Biden since the TV debate, insisting he is the man to win the 2024 election. He did also say “You don’t turn your back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”
So although he is publicly backing Biden, he has admitted it wasn’t the best performance from the President.
Despite his public backing of Biden, the rumors are still flying around.
Further fuelling the rumors, is Newsom heading to New Hampshire to canvas for Joe Biden. If he performs impressively, it will make Newsom look the more suitable candidate. His presence in a state last won by a Republican in 2000 will also lead to questions about why Biden didn’t show up.
Biden is now 2 points in the polls in New Hampshire. It’s almost like sending in Newsom is regarded as a better option than sending in the President.
The next few weeks will go a long way to determining if Joe Biden makes it onto the ballot paper.
Ultimately, it is up to Biden. Publicly, his party is backing Biden. But if voices within the party turn on him, will it result in a last-minute change?
If it does, then Gavin Newsom has to be the pick. Newsom and Kamala Harris are both +600. But Newsom doesn’t have the baggage that Harris carries.
Biden will likely be on the ticket. But if you are looking to back another candidate, Gavin Newsom looks to be the best bet.
Check out our partner table below, where you will find the best online betting sites in the USA in 2024 for political betting:
