The fallout from the 2022 US midterm elections continues, and with the outcome looking like it could change the landscape of US politics, it’s time we took another look at the betting to win the 2024 US Presidential Elections.
The 2022 US midterms were supposed to see a red wave sweep across America. Current President Joe Biden is extremely unpopular. And with the economy stalling (which generally gets blamed on the President), it seemed like the perfect storm for the Republicans to retake the Senate and send Biden a message ahead of the 2024 Presidential Elections.
It didn’t happen. The Republicans failed to take control of the Senate. And with Georgia requiring a runoff, they could lose more power in the house.
By and large, the main media outlets and political commentators blamed the Republicans’ failure firmly at the doorstep of Donald Trump Snr.
So, with Trump having confirmed he intends to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, how has this all affected the latest betting for Donald Trump Snr?
The short answer is it has seen Florida Governor Ron DeSantis go ahead of Trump.
Before the 2022 US midterm election on November 8th, Trump and Ron DeSantis were pretty much neck and neck in the race for the nomination.
With Trump seemingly being blamed for the lack of progress – perceived failure, whatever you want to call it – in the midterms, the former President has fallen behind DeSantis in the betting odds.
To gain the nomination, DeSantis is now -105, with Trump at +160. Following behind is Mike Pence at +1500, and Nikki Hayley at +2000.
Ron DeSantis has long been tipped as the man to go up against Trump. And his backers will feel the results from the election on November 8th strengthens his case.
DeSantis is a fresh face. He is largely untainted by what’s gone on in the Republican Party and the aftermath of the 2020 election loss. And at 44, many undecided Americans could see it as an alternative to the two older guys.
If further endorsement of DeSantis were needed, in his 2022 Florida election, he defeated his Democrat opponent by over 1.5 million votes, a margin of 19.4%. This was the largest win in Florida since 1982.
Supporters of DeSantis claim this is an endorsement of his Presidential candidacy.
Donald Trump has promised DeSantis a no holds barred battle should he stand, and as yet, the 44-year-old hasn’t stated publicly one way or another if he is likely to do so.
Trump has already publicly called the Florida Governor ‘Ron DeSanctimonious’, and it already promises to be a brutal battle. But Republican voters have also shown a preference for DeSantis. Pennsylvania Republicans have recently voted 45% DeSantis to 40% Trump in a straw poll of who they want to lead the party into the 2024 vote.
Should DeSantis announce he will take Trump on, it’s hard to say whether it would see a shift in his odds. It depends on whether the market has already factored in his decision. It seems likely that it has. But we will only know for definite if or when he publicly declares his intention to seek the Republican Presidential nomination.
Even before running off against Trump for the Republican nomination, DeSantis is already the favorite to win the 2024 Election.
| Betting to win 2024 US Presidential Election |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Joe Biden | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Donald Trump Snr | +400 | +350 | +400 |
| Kamala Harris | +1300 | +1200 | +1250 |
| Gavin Newsome | +1300 | +1400 | +1300 |
BetOnline, and other top-tier US online bookmakers, makes DeSantis +200, Joe Biden +350, and Donald Trump Snr +400. Following those three are Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsome, both at +1300. You can read more about this bookmaker at our BetOnline review.
The betting to win the next election see the Republicans as favorites. The Republican Party is -130, and the Democratic Party is -110. Any other party is +3500.
So would those odds be the same if DeSantis was going head-to-head with Biden? I doubt it myself. The presence of Trump looks like the only thing holding up the Republican Party in the betting odds to win the 2024 US Prsidential Election.
DeSantis is +200 to be the next US President. He is yet to even declare he is standing. He will probably have to withstand all that Trump throws at him. And then, assuming he comes through all that, he will have to go to the American people for endorsement.
And he’s already the favorite!
Should DeSantis win the nomination to lead the Republican Party into the next Presidential Election, his odds are likely to go odds on. And the Republican Party will no doubt see their odds disappear as well.
A lot can change in that time, and of that, there can be no doubt. But all the signs are there that DeSantis will stand. And at this moment in time, it looks like he will beat Trump to the Republican nomination. It also looks like he could win the Presidential Election in 2024. The only thing that is currently keeping his price in the betting this high, is the lack of clarity.
