Pennsylvania is set to be one of the key States in deciding the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election. According to the latest polls, Kamala Harris has a small lead. This is reflected in the betting, with the Democratic nominee being the marginal favorite. Here, we anticipate this key battle in our political betting futures and picks.
In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania with 48.17% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 47.46% of the vote share. Fast forward to 2020, Joe Biden got 50.01% of the vote share, Trump received 48.84%.
Those two Presidential Elections were close. And the closeness of the corresponding results in Pennsylvania is a good indicator of how important this seat is to both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
In fact, it’s probably more crucial to Harris than Trump.
Why? Because Republican nominees have lost here in recent years and still won the White House. A Democrat hasn’t.
In seven of the last eight Presidential Elections, Pennsylvania has been blue. Even Al Gore and John Kerry won here in 2000 and 2004. But that wasn’t enough to win their respective elections.
George W Bush lost to Al Gore here in 2000. He again lost here in 2004, on this occasion to John Kerry. Bush still won both elections. The only time in the last 36 years that this seat has been won by a Republican is in 2016.
So if Trump wins again, it almost certainly signals defeat for Harris.
The latest betting has Kamala Harris and the Democrats as the favorites to win Pennsylvania.
Considering the State has been blue so often in recent elections, this might not be too much of a surprise. But the odds are set against the results of opinion polls, and not recent history.
To win Pennsylvania, the Democrats are -125, with the Republicans at +100.
The odds on who wins Pennsylvania are a snapshot of the betting to win the 2024 US Presidential and clear evidence of how close this could be.
In the betting to be the next president of the US, Kamala Harris is -125, and Donald Trump is +100. The betting to be the winning party is identical. The Democrats are -125, and the Republicans are +100.
For more information about betting on the upcoming election, check out our page dedicated to the odds on the 2024 US Presidential Election.
The polls are giving a clear insight into why the bookmakers have this race so close in 2024. Successfully interpreting them could be the key to taking advantage of the latest political betting opportunities.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris is on course to win. She is ahead by 1.3 points on 48.2% to Trump’s 46.9%.
RealClearPolitics is tracking Harris at 0.6 points ahead of Trump. Maybe crucially, maybe not, political betting expert Nate Silver’s own analysis has Harris 1.5 points ahead of Trump.
But, a recent poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker between September 19th and 22nd had the two on 48% each.
A word of note here: The founder of Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen, has been accused of bias towards the Republicans in the past.
In general, opinion polls can be interpreted as the pollsters want them to be. But one thing that is consistent with the above is that Harris looks in front in what is a tight race.
Of those polled, 43% said they were less likely to vote for Harris based on the economic policies of Joe Biden. Only 30% said the Democratic economic policies would encourage them to vote for Harris.
While in a direct head-to-head on the economy, 50% think Trump would do better, compared to 46% who sided with Harris.
The economy is a major factor when it comes to voting intentions. But it isn’t the only thing. And in a very polarized electorate, there are plenty of other issues that are going to influence how people vote.
So don’t just focus on the economy when it comes to picking a winner.
The polls are slightly in favor of Kamala Harris. But there is still plenty of time for things to change.
Based on recent elections, if Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, she almost certainly loses the US Presidential Election. Trump might (and it’s a big might) be able to afford defeat in the Battleground State and still win the race for the White House.
So with the odds of the Democrats winning Pennsylvania the same as their odds to win the US Presidential Election, a wager on the Democrats to win Pennsylvania would make more sense as things stand.
Check out our partner table below, where you will find the best online betting sites in the USA in 2024 for political betting:
