There is no clear betting favorite in the race to win the 2024 US Presidential Election. But when it comes to winning the popular vote, Kamala Harris (-450) and the Democratic Party (-500) are the clear front runners. In our latest political betting futures, we look closer at the betting and find the best value betting picks.
The 2024 US Presidential Election is now less than one month away and there is still no clear sign of who is the outright favorite to win.
One area of the election where there does seem to be some clear water is in the popular vote.
Unfortunately for Democrats, winning the popular vote doesn’t win the White House. Nevertheless, it is still a good betting market and one that offers good value if you can call it correctly.
In the four most recent Presidential Elections, the Democrats have won the popular vote.
You have to go way back to 2004, and George W. Bush’s win over John Kerry to find the last time the Republican Party won the popular vote and the White House.
The latest political betting has Kamala Harris and the Democrats as the favorites to win the popular vote.
There are two markets in this race. One is for the winning candidate and one for the winning party. There is also a market for the percentage of the winning margin.
In the popular vote betting to be the winning candidate, Kamala Harris is -450, and Donald Trump is +275.
While in the betting to be the party who secures the most votes, the Democrats are -500, with the Republicans at +300, and any other party at +10000.
In the margin of victory betting, Harris is +250 to win by a margin of 2.50% and 4.99%. Winning margins of 0%-2.49% and 5.00% to 7.49% for Harris can be wagered on at +300.
Donald Trump is +300 to win the popular vote by a margin of between 0% and 2.49% and +800 to win by 2.50% and 4.99%.
For more information on who will win the race to the White House, please check out our odds on the 2024 US Presidential Election. Here you will find plenty of political betting opportunities.
Renowned historian and predictor of elections Allan Lichtman has gone on record in recent days saying he believes Kamala Harris will win the keys to the White House.
It kind of goes without saying that if Harris wins the 2024 Presidential Election, she will almost certainly win the popular vote.
Lichtman has made his call based on the same model that predicted nearly every presidential election correctly across the last four decades.
Furthermore, Lichtman has dismissed the so-called ‘October surprise’ as a myth.
But even given Lichtman’s dismissal of anything unexpected turning the election, there surely has to be even the smallest amount of caution placed on a possibly seismic revelation that could swing the undecided one way or the other.
And in a Presidential race like no other in living memory, it may be foolish to blindly dismiss the possibility of something seismic happening between now and November 5th.
Namely, immigration and the economy.
Another element that the models used by the likes of Lichtman might be overlooking is the fundamental issues that affect voters.
Whatever the facts, the perception in America is that Trump will be stronger on both. Furthermore, the former President has also done a good job of repeating the argument that Harris – during her time in the Biden administration – has failed in both aspects.
Trump will keep on banging that same drum over the next few weeks. Of that, there can be no doubt.
These two issues alone may be enough to win Trump the keys to the White House. But maybe not enough to see him win the popular vote. Not that that would bother him much.
Do we have faith in the prediction models used so accurately by analysts over the years?
Well, yes and no, is kind of the answer. I certainly do have some faith, but maybe not enough to justify backing the Democrats to win the popular vote at -500. So instead, I’m hedging my bets.
Joe Biden won the popular vote by a margin of 4.45% in 2020. That was a tight election with Biden winning 51.3% of the vote.
The margin could be smaller this time. So a wager on Harris to win by 0% to 2.49% at +300, and a saver bet on a 2.50% to 4.99% margin of victory at +250 are the betting picks.
Check out our partner table below, where you will find the best online betting sites in the USA in 2024 for political betting:
