As expected, the Brazilian General Election on October 2nd didn’t have an overall winner declared. So with the second round of voting now scheduled for October 30th, we look at the latest betting and decide if Lula da Silva, our original politics betting pick, is still the best value bet.
There are now just two candidates left. Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva and the current president, Jair Bolsonaro. In the first round of voting da Silva received 48.4% of the votes, while Bolsonaro got 43.2%.
For a winner to be declared in Brazil, a candidate needs to get over 50% of the vote. So with no one achieving that in the first round of voting, (only) the top two candidates go through to the second round of voting, scheduled to take place on October 30th, 2022.
The result of the first election shocked most observers. Many predicted Lula da Silva would fall short of the 50% required in the first round of voting, but not many predicted Bolsonaro would poll over 43%.
This told the world that Bolsonaro was more popular than many thought. So, the question many are now asking is where will the 8.4% of voters who didn’t vote for either candidate in the first round place their vote at the end of the month? And that’s assuming they even bother to turn out!
The result highlighted how polarized the Brazilian electorate seems to have become. And having such polarizing figures may put off some of the public who voted for the eliminated candidates from voting in the second round. Some may vote for who they deem the least bad option. At the same time, others might not bother to vote at all.
One thing that is certain is that Brazilians seem dissatisfied with politicians in general. The October 2nd election had the country’s lowest turnout since 1998.
Lula da Silva is the favorite to win the 2022 Brazilian General Election runoff. The political betting odds on da Silva winning are now -275, which are far better than the -500 he was before the first round of voting.
Jair Bolsonaro is still the outsider with the Vegas odds setters, he is now +185. The current president was +300 before the first round of betting.
This means that da Silva has seen his odds lengthen, while Bolsonaro’s betting odds have shortened. If you’re looking at backing da Silva to win, this is great news.
BetOnline provides odds. Our BetOnline sportsbook review has more details on this popular Vegas sportsbook.
The second round of voting takes place on Sunday, October 30th, 2022. The winner will be the candidate who gets more than 50% of the votes cast on this day.
The only two candidates left to vote for are the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, and the former president, Lula da Silva.
All other candidates have been eliminated, and the election will be decided on this day.
Now, let’s look at the two remaining candidates and see if we are still going with da Silva to win (our first round of voting betting pick), or if we’ve switched sides after the shock result of October 2nd.
Jair Bolsonaro has, by and large, fought the 2022 campaign on a similar ticket to 2018. He is a nationalist politician that polarizes opinion and is often known as the Brazilian Donald Trump (Snr).
And as Donald Trump showed us in the 2020 US General Election, voters connect with nationalism. This is reflected in his betting odds to win the US General Election again in 2024.
Bolsonaro won the 2018 Brazilian General Election in the second round with a percentage share of 55.13, compared to Fernando Haddad, who received 44.87%. But if you look at the statistics from the first round of voting, Bolsonaro received 46%, with Haddad getting just 29.3%.
That means there were a lot more floating voters back in 2018, as the two main candidates accounted for 75.3% of the vote in the first round. This year, the top two candidates accounted for over 90% of votes.
So does this spell good or bad news for Bolsonaro? The second-place candidate lost four years ago, which is what Bolsonaro is this time. On the flip side, the second-place candidate four years ago fared far worse in the first round of voting than in 2022.
Lula da Silva was in power in Brazil between 2003 and 2010. Since then, he has been embroiled in controversy and was even sentenced to serve time in prison. Although it was later overturned.
He is a former union leader who first ran for office in 1982. Lula da Silva leads the Workers Party and is regarded as a left-wing politician, putting him in direct opposition to Jair Bolsonaro and his right-wing policies.
He is widely regarded as the better of two bad options. So, does he take the votes needed from the eliminated candidates to win the 2nd round?
As there don’t seem to be as many floating voters in 2022 as in 2018, I think he does. He already has a core base (as do both men, in fairness). But I believe enough center-left voters will gravitate to da Silva, as they did with Joe Biden in America, for da Silva to prevail.
Therefore, I still make Lula da Silva my betting pick to win the Brazilian General Election. Although this time at better odds.
