The feeling of change is in the air in UK politics, and with new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struggling to regain trust in his government, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party continues to shorten in the betting to win the next UK General Election. With the Labour Party now just -450 to win and to look too short, we look at the alternative markets and try and find the best value politics betting picks from the futures markets.
The old saying in Politics is that a week is a long time, which is certainly the case on both sides of the Atlantic these days.
In truth, it seems to have become more the case that a day, or an hour, is a long time in politics. Whether it be the Tory Party in the UK lurching from one scandal to another or searches for classified documents at properties belonging to Donald Trump Snr or Joe Biden in the USA, there always seems to be a scandal going on.
But whilst in the USA, the top online US bookmakers are still showing that the betting odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election are close, the same can’t be said on the other side of the pond.
In the betting to win the UK General Election, it could be argued that the odds on the Conservative Party are shorter than expected. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is the favorite at -450. But the Conservatives are just +275, with the Liberal Democrats next at +12500 with BetOnline. You can read more about them in our BetOnline sportsbook review.
| Betting to win the 2024 UK General Election |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | -450 | -500 | -450 |
| Conservatives | +275 | +250 | +275 |
| Liberal Democrats | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 |
The only possible reason why the Conservatives are this short in the betting is that this is effectively a two-horse race, and there is still over a year to go until the next General Election, and things can still change.
In other words, if the General Election were tomorrow, a bet on Labour would be buying money. The UK voting system means only two parties have a chance of winning.
The Liberal Democrats do have a large following. But their problem is that the British public knows the best way to get rid of an unpopular party is to throw your weight behind the main opposition. So in the 2024 General Election, Liberal Democrat supporters may vote for Labour to help eliminate the current government.
This is partly why a bet on the Liberal Democrats wastes time. Another zero could be added to their odds, and they still wouldn’t be worth betting on.
Just a few weeks back, December 2022 to be exact, the betting on an overall majority read; Labour to win a majority at -111, no overall majority at +135, and a Conservative Party majority was +500. The market now reads; a Labour majority at -149, no overall majority at +162, and a Conservative majority are +740.
No overall majority was favorite long ago, and it is now not the second favorite outcome in the betting. But also continuing to drift as the consensus that Labour will win the next election continues to grow.
The direction of these markets seemed to change when the Conservative Party elected Liz Truss to be their new leader in September. Truss announced a mini-budget shortly after her appointment, which melted the financial markets. This resulted in the Conservative Party forcing her to announce her intention to resign after just 44 fateful days in office.
Faith in the Conservative Party was on the wane before Truss took office. But not at the rate it seems to have accelerated since September 2022. This has resulted in the Conservatives putting – what it regarded as a safe pair of hands in – Rishi Sunak in the role of its leader, and therefore Prime Minister. This was an attempt to win back the trust of the British public. But so far, it seems to be failing.
Whether the fault of Sunak or not (and plenty will say a lot of his problems are of his own making), life under Rishi Sunak is calmer, but his party seems to be lurching from one crisis to another. Put, his Conservative government seems to now be in terminal decline.
This means the question of betting on the UK General Election is no longer one of if Labour will win – but by how big a margin it will win by. It’s like ignoring the moneyline in a one-sided NBA match and instead focusing on the handicap spread.
It’s really hard to say at the moment. At -450 to win the General Election, there seems to be little risk to that bet. But is it good value? In the overall majority betting market, there could be a case for betting on no overall majority. But this would require a swing back towards the Conservatives, which doesn’t look likely.
BetOnline offers an interesting market that is just a straight yes or no in overall majority betting. It doesn’t matter which party; will there be an overall majority? At the moment, yes is -140, and no is +100. We think that represents a good bet. There is no chance that the Tory Party will have an overall majority, but as voting intentions currently stand, Labour will win an overall majority.
So if you’re looking to place a long-term political bet on the 2024 UK General Election, yes, in the overall majority market at -140 looks to be the current best value pick.
