As the semifinal round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs wages on, fans are feeling the increased intensity for the semifinal round to produce a Stanley Cup Finalist. As we inch closer to the final two, the remaining four teams are upping their efforts just to try and advance to the final round. In this article, we have our NHL bets pick for this Monday, June 21st. Will the Tampa Bay Lightning keep home and defeat the New York Islanders in Game 5?
| NHL Odds | MyBookie |  | GTBets |  | bovada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -190 | -180 | -190 | -190 | -190 |
| New York Islanders | +160 | +162 | +165 | +165 | +165 |
On Saturday, the New York Islanders held off the Tampa Bay Lightning by a score of 3-2. This was after New York built a 3-0 lead behind three second-period goals. They appeared to have control of the game. Then, Tampa Bay began to crank up the intensity. By doing that, they nearly tied the game and arguably set the tone for Game 5. New York survived by the slimmest of margins as seen here.
Now, the expected goals for Tampa Bay were elevated in that first period. Yes, the Islanders dominated the second period and converted their opportunities — three goals in all. Overall high-danger scoring chances ended up nearly even during Game 4. Tampa Bay had the only high-danger chance at even-strength during the third period.
It is hard to believe but the two teams combined for just four power plays in this game. Tampa Bay had just one man- advantage and the expectation is they will have more on Monday night in Game 5. Some will debate the officiating but it did seem that the game was allowed to just be played. Some calls were just being let go on both sides of the ledger. Neither team scored on the power play by the way.
It is easy to see why the Tampa Bay Lightning are again robust home NHL bets for Game 5.
Ahead of this pivotal Game 5 clash, the NHL odds are out and they’re in favor of Tampa Bay. The Lightning has been listed between -175 and -195, while the New York Islanders are around +150 to +170. Even most New York backers realize that this will be quite difficult. A split felt like a win to the fans in New York. The Islanders barely survived a Tampa Bay attack that scored twice in the third period during Game 4 and by all rights could have scored at least twice more.
However, they did survive as the scene has shifted back to Tampa Bay. Again the key is what Bruce Cassidy of the Boston Bruins said about the New York Islanders during their series. He referred to them as the New York Saints. They do just enough to get away with things.
It comes down to the starts. Tampa Bay must execute early, draw penalties, generate scoring chances on transition, etc. For all the shots at even strength early, they never did draw the minors some expected. That should change on Monday. At least, that is the thought process.
For NHL Picks, our best bet on Monday night features taking Tampa Bay on the moneyline.
Tampa Bay should win Game 5 on Monday. One of the big reasons is the fact that Tampa Bay can quickly wipe or nearly wipe deficits off the board. New York can never let its guard down against Tampa Bay. It almost cost them the season in game 4.
It is because of the Tampa Bay balance in their top nine. Those three lines have generated a solid amount of chances in this series. Now, the key is to get them to execute earlier in Game 5.
The Las Vegas sportsbooks projected -180 to -190 odds for a Game 5, while New York is again a road underdog around +160. Earlier this postseason, Tampa Bay had a bit of value for the NHL Stanley Cup title. Now, Tampa Bay is slightly ahead of Vegas as the favorite.
Once upon a time, the Lightning was +600 entering the postseason. Now, they hold +115 odds to be crowned the Stanley Cup champions. Tampa Bay thriving against Carolina and Florida helped their odds immensely. Nikita Kucherov spearheads the offense while Andrei Vasilevskiy holds the fort in the net for Tampa Bay.
Now, New York has shown an ability to limit chances and in three of the four games, the Islanders held Tampa Bay to a total of four power plays (Game 2 had five for Tampa). The Islanders’ balanced attack combined with Mathew Barzal’s ability to dominate has kept this series even through four games.
Also, the goaltending of Semyon Varlamov has been close to the level of Vasilevskiy. It is the way that the New York Islanders play as a team under coach Barry Trotz that has kept New York in this series. This feels like 2020 all over again. Both games on Long Island were close which is why it is hard to pick the Tampa Bay puckline on Monday.
New York is capable of playing a higher-tempo style when they want to. However, so is Tampa Bay. That has been what has made this series so intriguing. Thankfully, for Tampa Bay, they carry home-ice advantage for this critical Game 5 and have that championship pedigree.
Take the Tampa Bay Lightning to cover the moneyline.
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