The Stanley Cup Playoffs officially begin on Saturday, but we’ll have to wait until Sunday for Game 1 of a first-round series between the No. 1 seed Florida Panthers and the Wild Card Tampa Bay Lightning. In other words, the battle of the Sunshine State. Florida won the heavily competitive Atlantic Division and finished the campaign with four straight wins, so they come in hot. Tampa meanwhile finished as the top Wild Card team and has no shortage of playoff success, having won back-to-back Cups only a few years ago. Who will come out on top? Keep reading for the Panthers vs Lightning series picks.
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By no surprise, the Panthers are a clear favorite to win the series at -195 odds. The Lightning come back at +170. However, Tampa has won both of their playoff meetings with Florida. Something to keep in mind in terms of a potential upset.
The entire hockey world was surprised when the Panthers made an improbable run to the Stanley Cup last season, ultimately falling short against the Vegas Golden Knights. Florida showed they’re no pushover and in 2023-24, Paul Maurice’s squad proved their dominance. The Atlantic Division title came down to the wire but the Panthers ended up taking it, just edging out the Bruins with an impressive 52-24-6 record.
The Panthers were a solid team on both ends of the ice but it’s their blue line that stood out the most, allowing the fewest goals per game in the NHL. Offensively, Sam Reinhart enjoyed a career season, leading the way with 57 goals and 37 assists for a total of 94 points. Reinhart becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer as well, so you better believe Florida will be wanting to keep him in town. Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Vladimir Tarasenko are all consistent contributors as well. In net, Sergei Bobrovsky was 36-17-4 with a 2.37 GAA and .915 save percentage while collecting six shutouts in 58 appearances. Anthony Stolarz also had a 2.03 GAA in limited action.
Florida beat Tampa Bay twice this season and also lost once. The Panthers have no shortage of playoff experience after last year’s deep run but they won’t be taking the Bolts for granted either, a team with lots of veterans who have been on this stage before. The series begins at home for Florida, who went 26-13-2 on home ice this season. They will have quite a bit of rest since their last game, having played on Tuesday in a 5-2 victory over the Maple Leafs.
Don’t get it twisted, the Lightning are a solid team. But, Nikita Kucherov is a massive reason they’re in this position to possibly chase a Cup. Kucherov just hit 144 points on Wednesday night against the Maple Leafs and became only the fifth player ever to register 100 assists in a season, joining Connor McDavid. He also did it in 2023-24. Kucherov also has 43 goals to his name and will finish the season as the points leader in the NHL. Offensive is the name of the game for Tampa, who are 22nd in goals allowed but fifth in goals scored.
Brayden Point also has 89 points to his name, while pending UFA Steven Stamkos has 79. The 16-year veteran could be gone this summer, with the team yet to discuss a contract extension. That being said, it may be the last hoorah for Stamkos in a Bolts uniform. Overall, Tampa has five different players with a minimum of 70 points and 11 with at least 24 points. There’s balance up and down the roster. With their win against the Leafs, Tampa finished the season at 45-29-8 but has lost three of their last four.
Both Kucherov and Stamkos played well versus the Panthers during the regular season though, which is a promising sign. Tampa’s two series wins over them came in 2021 and 2022. The Lightning are definitely up against a very difficult task, but anything is possible in the postseason. Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to be a lot better in between the sticks though, compiling a .900 save percentage during the season.
I do think this will be a competitive series, but the Panthers are a powerhouse. I don’t see them having any issues beating the Bolts, who have been pretty inconsistent at times. Take Florida with confidence to move on to the second round.
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