The Western Conference Finals continue on Wednesday evening as the Edmonton Oilers will be looking to bounce back in Game 4 after a tough loss to the Dallas Stars on Monday. The puck is scheduled to drop at 8:30 PM ET at Rogers Place. Dallas overcame an early 2-0 deficit in Game 3 to ultimately win 5-3, taking a 2-1 series lead in the process. That leaves Edmonton in a must-win situation to avoid going into a 3-1 hole heading on the road, which could be a nightmare. Below, find our Stars vs Oilers Game 4 picks.
Before diving into the NHL picks, check out our Stanley Cup Odds and the NHL Playoffs Odds.
The Oilers are a -130 home favorite for an implied win probability of 56.52%. The Stars return at +116 and have a 46.30% chance of taking a 3-1 lead in the series. The total in goals is set at six.
This is a familiar spot for Dallas, who were in the West Finals last year where they lost to the Vegas Golden Knights. That alone leaves them with enough motivation to get to the Stanley Cup this time around. The Stars have looked good in this series and in the playoffs overall, averaging three goals scored and 2.38 goals allowed. They haven’t lit it up offensively like in the regular season, but Dallas is doing enough to be ahead in this current series.
The Stars came out extremely flat in Game 3 on Monday and were punished early on with Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid giving Edmonton an early first-period lead. But, things were completely different in the second as Dallas was firing on all cylinders, barraging Stuart Skinner with shots left and right. Jason Robertson was the leading catalyst, scoring twice in the period before completing his hat-trick in the third. Wyatt Johnston and Miro Heiskanen also found the back of the net. All three have done their part from an offensive standpoint in the postseason so far.
In net, Jake Oettinger made 28 saves and settled down a lot after a shaky first period. The Stars will have it tough on Wednesday after the Oilers essentially collapsed in Game 3. But, if they can win another on the road, it’ll put them in a prime position to advance to the Stanley Cup for the first time since 2020.
The Oilers are always in the mix in the playoffs but they’ve still failed to get to the Promised Land in the McDavid era. That’s disappointing for a team with such talent, but not all is lost quite yet in this series. That being said, Game 3 was probably one of their worst showings yet, especially in the second period. Edmonton had their foot on the gas pedal from the puck drop and it showed with a pair of early goals. However, Kris Knoblauch’s team didn’t keep the intensity up and the Stars took advantage.
Stuart Skinner allowed a couple of questionable goals but in all honesty, it wasn’t his fault. The usually solid Oilers blue line was not good here, with the Stars truly having their way for the second and third periods. That may result in some defensive changes for a must-win Game 4, as Knoblauch said on Tuesday to media. Aside from McDavid and Hyman, Adam Henrique also scored. McDavid hit 25 playoff points with his goal and assist, tying Leon Draisaitl for the team lead. In fact, he also hit the 100-point mark in his playoff career, which is impressive in itself.
Edmonton was 0 for 2 on the power play and has still failed to score with the man advantage in the conference finals. That’s concerning as well and it will need to change if they’re going to move on. As previously mentioned, the Oilers will see Wednesday as a game that must be won. Yes, they will return home for Game 6, but overcoming a 3-1 deficit is so tough, no matter how good you are. Needless to say, Edmonton won’t be short on motivation after how Game 3 unfolded. They will be biting at the bit to respond.
I have no doubts the Oilers will win this one at home. This is too good of a team to lose another at home where the atmosphere is very much in their favor. Take the Edmonton moneyline.
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