The Tampa Bay Lightning will be looking for revenge on Wednesday evening at Amalie Arena against Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The puck is scheduled to drop at 7 PM EST. The Pens beat the Bolts 4-2 last Thursday at this same venue. Tampa has gotten back on track since then however, blanking the Dallas Stars 4-0 on Monday evening after an 8-1 loss to them only days before. Pittsburgh meanwhile just lost to the Philadelphia Flyers in overtime, their second defeat in a row to Philly. Below, find the Penguins vs Lightning picks.
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The Lightning are a -125 home favorite here while the Penguins return at +110. The total in goals is set at 6.5. Pittsburgh has dominated Tampa Bay in recent memory, winning five meetings in a row. They will be confident on Wednesday evening.
Yes, Pittsburgh did beat the Lightning six days ago, but they’ve lost back-to-back games since and three of their last four. The Pens took the L in a shootout against the Flyers on Saturday before an OT loss on Monday on the road against Philadelphia. Dropping two consecutive games is bad enough but it was versus a in-state rival. That’s even worse. Overall, it’s been a subpar start to the season, sitting in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division with an 11-10-3 record.
Defensively, the Penguins are great. After all, they’re only allowing 2.58 goals per game, which ranks seventh in the NHL. However, on the opposite end, there’s not a whole lot of consistency. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are their best offensive players. That’s no jab on them but at this point in their respective careers, they shouldn’t have to lead a team. Sid The Kid has 15 goals and 11 assists already. He’s on pace for 50 goals, which is absurd given his age. Jake Guentzel’s 28 points are a team-best, scoring nine and assisting 19.
The reality is Pittsburgh just isn’t capitalizing on their opportunities. They rank third in shots on goal per game yet 19th in goals scored. You can see what I mean. Although the Penguins need to break out of this cold skid, it won’t be easy. After visiting Tampa, the Florida Panthers are up next. It’s time for the Pens to step up and deliver on the road.
I’m not sure what’s worse. A blue line who can defend and an offense who struggles or vice versa. For the Lightning, it’s the complete opposite of the Pens. This team has always been a force in front of net and that’s been no different in 2023-24. They’re top-10 in goals scored with four different guys in double figures. By no surprise, Nikita Kucherov is the leading man with 16 goals and 26 assists this season. Brayden Point also has 30 points, while Brandon Hagel and Steven Stamkos are the other key figures offensively.
The blue line however is allowing far too many goals and looks very vulnerable, hence why Tampa is just one game above .500 at the moment, which puts them in fifth place in the Atlantic Division. The Bolts are also just 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. They were on a four-game skid before ending it in impressive fashion on Monday evening with a 4-0 victory over Dallas. Andrei Vasilevskiy notched his first shutout of the year since coming back from injury, making 25 saves. Kucherov, Luke Glendening, and Anthony Cirelli all got on the scoresheet, with the latter netting twice.
Tampa does play very well at home, compiling a 7-3-3 record compared to 4-7-2 on the road. As previously mentioned, they will be hungry to respond and finally beat the Pens, who clearly have their number in the past few years. This is a good time to do so since Pittsburgh is slumping.
The Pens just put together a complete performance and it should be something they can build on. Given this game is at Amalie Arena as well, I’m liking Tampa to finally take one from Pittsburgh on Wednesday evening. Take the moneyline.
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