The NFL season is slowly reaching its end, which means it’s a perfect time to bet on NFL MVP props while there’s still value. At the moment, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the favorite at +225 amid his impressive season, but San Francisco 49ers phenom Brock Purdy isn’t far behind at +250. In third is Jalen Hurts at +450 with the Eagles at 10-2, while Tyreek Hill is the first non-QB in the mix with +700 odds. Below, we’ll discuss all of these contenders.
Before we lay out the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | +225 | +225 | +350 |
| Brock Purdy | +250 | +275 | +325 |
| Jalen Hurts | +450 | +575 | +400 |
| Tyreek Hill | +700 | +900 | +1400 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +950 | +950 | +750 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1000 | +900 | +650 |
We’re finally seeing what Dak Prescott is truly capable and it’s a treat to watch. The Cowboys QB has improved immensely from 2022 when he threw 15 interceptions, completing 70.1% of his passes for 26 touchdowns and 3,234 yards against just six picks. Dallas is one of the best teams in the league because of his brilliance each and every week. Dak has never won MVP but as long as he keeps it rolling, there’s a legitimate chance he takes home the most prestigious individual award in the league. MVP odds can change in a hurry depending on a performance so Prescott must continue to play well to finish out the campaign.
I don’t think Purdy himself would’ve even believed he’d be an MVP contender after getting taken last in the 2022 NFL Draft. The former Iowa State standout stepped into the spotlight last season and immediately impressed. If it wasn’t for his injury in the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles, the 49ers could’ve very well won a Super Bowl. But, that’s the goal now and Purdy is proving he can take his team there. The youngster has completed 70.2% of his passes for 3,185 yards, 23 TDs, and only six INTs. Yes, Purdy has a plethora of weapons around him like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, but that doesn’t take away from what he’s managed to accomplish. He’s utilizing all of his targets and just pummeled the Eagles in Week 13 in a revenge game. That outcome was huge for Purdy’s MVP hopes.
On paper, Hurts’ passing numbers aren’t exactly great. He has a 66.5% completion rate for 2,995 yards, 19 TDs, and 10 picks. There’s been some rough moments for him at times, but the results are there. Philly has the best record in the NFL. That being said, on the ground, Hurts is a menace. He’s taken it to the house 12 times and just had three scores with his legs a couple of weeks ago. The QB is made for the big moment and finished as an MVP runner-up last year. I think it’s a bit of a longshot he beats out Dak or Purdy, but let’s be honest, Hurts is more focused on bringing a Super Bowl back to the City of Brotherly Love.
The last time a non-QB won the MVP was in 2012 and that was running back Adrian Peterson. As for wide receivers? Well, there’s never been one to capture the award. That’s why it’s hard to imagine Tyreek Hill will do so. Nevertheless, it’s hard to ignore his eye-popping numbers for the Miami Dolphins. Cheetah has reeled in a league-best 12 touchdowns and posted a league-best 1,481 receiving yards. At this rate, he could even break the 2,000-yard mark. That’s never happened. Calvin Johnson’s 1,964 yards in 2012 are the most ever. Hill has the chance to make history but unfortunately, it likely won’t end up in an MVP in his trophy case.
You have to mention the reigning winner. Mahomes has won the award twice now, but a third is probably unlikely in 2023-24. That doesn’t mean he isn’t having a good season, though. The signal-caller has completed 67.8% of his passes for 3,127 yards and 22 TDs against 10 interceptions. The Chiefs are once again a Super Bowl contender, even though Mahomes has limited weapons downfield. Travis Kelce is having a bit of a down season too, so it’s been tough for the Chiefs signal-caller. The WR room is KC’s biggest weakness by a mile.
Honestly, I do think it’s down to Dak and Purdy. And at this point with both of them having plus odds, the best move is to splash some cash on both quarterbacks before one potentially runs away with it in the coming weeks.
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