The big game of the NCAAF weekend sees Ohio State hosting Michigan at high noon on Saturday, and here we look ahead to what could be the fixture of the season in our Week 13 NCAAF betting picks.
Both teams come into the weekend 11-0, so something gotta give. And besides the obvious rivalry, there are also plenty of other implications resting on the outcome of this match, with the winner likely to represent the East Division in the Big Ten Championship game and also top the B10 league.
If the betting to win the 2023 NCAAF Championship is anything to go by, then Michigan is the team with it all to do. Michigan is the third favorite to win the championship at odds of +1000, that’s a long way behind second in the betting, Ohio State, who are +250.
| NCAAF 2023 National Championship Winner Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | -140 | -140 | -150 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Michigan Wolverines | +1000 | +850 | +1000 |
| TCU | +1400 | +1300 | +1300 |
| Clemson | +2000 | +2500 | +2800 |
| USC | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 |
The favorites are still the Georgia Bulldogs, who are odds at -140. The betting suggests that the top NCAAF Vegas odds setters think it is a two-horse race between the Bulldogs and the Buckeyes to win the championship in 2023.
After third-place Michigan comes TCU at +1400, then it’s Clemson at +2000 and USC at +2500.
Last weekend Ohio State gave away 27.5 points on the handicap spread against Maryland. They never came close to beating it, eventually only winning by 13 points (43-30).
The best Vegas betting sites set the total points spread for that match at 64.5. This suggests that they were expecting a scoreline of around 46-19. The Buckeyes managed 43 points, so the sportsbooks weren’t too far out, but they conceded around 11 points more than expected.
So is the Buckeyes defense currently underperforming? The previous weekend they conceded 14 points to Indiana, and the weekend before that, they were just seven points away from Northwestern. It could have just been an off week. They are entitled to the odd one. But could it be something more serious?
The Wolverines didn’t produce their greatest performance last weekend, as they labored to a 19-17 win over Illinois. They were 17-10 down in the last quarter and needed nine unanswered points in the fourth period to eventually take the game.
Could it have been the case that both teams already had one eye on this weekend’s match? Possibly. But either way, neither side came through their respective eleventh matches of the season with anything to shout about.
In betting, Ohio is the favorites with the best NCAAF betting sites. Bovada makes the Buckeyes -290 on the moneyline, with Michigan at +245. On the handicap spread, Michigan is getting a +7.5 points to start. They are -105 to win, while Ohio State is -115 to win from -7.5.
Finally, on the total points spread, over 55.5 is -110, and under 55.5 is also -110. These prices are taken from Bovada. For more information on this bookmaker, please read our Bovada sportsbook review, where you will also find out more about their new customers’ offers.
There are three markets for us to look at this weekend for our NCAAF betting picks, so let’s get started with the moneyline. I think the Buckeyes will win; let’s get that out there. I completely agree with the sportsbooks here!
Are they too much of a risk at -290, though? Maybe so, maybe not. It depends purely on your risk management. But I believe the Buckeyes are stronger across the board, and they owe Michigan for last year’s defeat. At this moment, CJ Stroud looks like the stronger quarterback against JJ McCarthy as well, so it all points to a win for the Buckeyes for me.
You can take them on the moneyline, but I’m swaying more toward the handicap. I don’t see 7.5 points as too much of an ask for the Buckeyes if they are on song. I believe Michigan has got it in them to pull off a win, but my head is just telling me that Ohio is a good eight to ten points better, so my first betting pick is Ohio State to win on the handicap.
Elsewhere, and I can’t help thinking that 55.5 points look low. The only way this spread doesn’t get beat is if both sides cancel each other out and play out a nervy tight game.
The total of 55.5 has been beaten in all but two of the Buckeyes’ matches, but it’s not been reached five times in Michigan’s fixtures. As I think the Buckeyes will win, I can see this being a high-scoring affair. I don’t think 55.5 will be smashed, but I can see around 60 points being scored, and I’m prepared to take a small risk and make over 55.5 points my second betting pick.
