The No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions aim to continue their dominant run in the College Football Playoff as they square off against the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 2025 Orange Bowl on Thursday night. The winner will secure a spot in the national championship game. Penn State has been in top form. They cruised past SMU and Boise State with a combined score of 69-24 in their first two playoff games.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame enters the Orange Bowl riding a 10-game winning streak from the regular season. Since then, they added playoff victories over Indiana and Georgia. However, the Fighting Irish face a slight disadvantage, having two fewer days to prepare due to the Sugar Bowl being postponed from Jan. 1 to Jan. 2.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. According to the latest College Football Playoff Odds, Notre Dame is a 2-point favorite. The total points over/under is set at 46. On the money line, Notre Dame is listed at -135, while Penn State is a +115 underdog.
Below are the odds for the 2025 Orange Bowl from three of the best College Football betting sites.
| Orange Bowl 2025 |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | -135 | -135 | -135 |
| Penn State | +115 | +115 | +115 |
| Notre Dame -2 | -112 | -112 | -110 |
| Penn State +2 | -108 | -108 | -110 |
| Over 46 | -108 | -108 | -110 |
| Under 46 | -112 | -112 | -110 |
Penn State’s blueprint for success in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Notre Dame lies in their well-rounded offense and stifling defense. The Nittany Lions rely on a dominant rushing attack. They average more than 200 yards per game, led by the exceptional tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Both backs have surpassed the 1,000-yard milestone this season. Their ground game is a key factor in managing time of possession and wearing down the Fighting Irish defense. Under first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State’s offense has gained new dimensions. They’ve added unpredictability to their game plan that could disrupt Notre Dame’s defensive efforts.
On the defensive side, Penn State has been a powerhouse, ranking fourth nationally in total yards allowed (288.8 per game). The anticipated return of standout edge rusher Abdul Carter, who has amassed 11 sacks this season, would bolster an already fierce pass rush. The defense’s capability was on full display in their quarterfinal win, where they effectively neutralized Boise State’s star running back.
With two extra days to prepare compared to Notre Dame, Penn State’s physical and methodical approach could be the deciding factor. It is expected to be a tightly contested and low-scoring game. The Nittany Lions’ ability to dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball positions them well to secure a victory and advance to the national championship.
Notre Dame’s chances for success in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Penn State centers on their elite defense and dynamic rushing attack. The Fighting Irish have one of the nation’s top defensive units. They have allowed just 13.6 points per game—slightly better than Penn State’s 15.8. This defensive strength, led by two-time All-American safety Xavier Watts, will play a pivotal role in neutralizing the Nittany Lions’ powerful running game. Watts’ ability to disrupt plays and deliver game-changing interceptions could be the key factor in a contest likely to be dominated by defense.
On offense, Notre Dame’s ground game, led by the electrifying Jeremiyah Love, will be essential in wearing down Penn State’s stout defense. Love’s ability to contribute as both a rusher and receiver adds a layer of unpredictability to the Irish attack. Quarterback Riley Leonard, a true dual threat with over 750 rushing yards this season, further enhances Notre Dame’s offensive versatility, presenting Penn State with a multifaceted challenge.
If Notre Dame can establish dominance on the ground early and maintain control of the clock, they’ll set themselves up well for success. With their disciplined defense and a balanced offensive approach, the Fighting Irish have the tools needed to secure a hard-fought victory and earn a spot in the national championship game.
This College Football Playoff semifinal promises to be a tightly contested battle, with Notre Dame entering as narrow 2-point favorites. The Fighting Irish’s defensive dominance, allowing just 13.6 points per game, will be key in countering Penn State’s balanced offensive attack. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame’s rushing duo of Jeremiyah Love and quarterback Riley Leonard has the potential to wear down the Nittany Lions’ defense over four quarters.
Penn State, however, brings a dynamic rushing attack of its own, featuring 1,000-yard backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Their ability to consistently move the chains will test Notre Dame’s front seven. Defensively, the Nittany Lions rank fourth nationally in total yards allowed, making them well-equipped to keep this matchup within reach.
With both teams boasting physical defenses and productive running games, this matchup is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Turnovers and special teams could tip the scales. Ultimately, Notre Dame’s edge in big-game experience and Leonard’s knack for delivering in clutch moments might be the difference. The Irish can cover the slim spread and advance to the national championship.
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