Michigan is in the Big Ten Championship game, and it’s Purdue who stands in the way of the Wolverines winning another conference championship. Here we look ahead to their weekend matchup in our free NCAAF betting picks.
Yes, last weekend Michigan pulled off another win over their rivals, Ohio State, winning the fixture for the second year running and for the first time in Columbus since 2000.
The 45-23 win went against the recent form this season. Ohio State went into the match as the -290 favorites, they also started the match at -7.5 points on the handicap, so to lose by over 20 points was surprising.
As for Michigan, this is the first time since 1997 that they are 12-0, and after hammering the then second favorites to win the 2023 NCAAF Championship, they’re now the second favorites themselves and a lot shorter in the latest NCAAF Vegas odds than they were before last weekend’s match.
The Georgia Bulldogs are still the betting favorites to win the 2023 National Championship. Going into last weekend, they were -140, and after a 37-14 win over Georgia Tech last weekend, the Bulldogs are now -155 betting favorites to win the championship.
| NCAAF 2023 National Championship Winner Betting |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | -155 | -155 | -150 |
| Michigan Wolverines | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| USC | +1100 | +1100 | +1000 |
| Ohio State | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| TCU | +1200 | +1200 | +1300 |
| Alabama | +2500 | +2800 | +2800 |
Last weekend, Ohio State was the +250 second favorites, they have been replaced as the second favorites by Michigan who are now into +300, having been +1100 this time last week.
After the Wolverines come to USC at +1100, and then Ohio State at +1200. Also at +1200 is TCU. Alabama are the final side listed in the betting at +2800. These odds are taken from BetOnline. You can read more about them, including their welcome bonus for new customers, at our BetOnline sportsbook review.
Michigan is 12-0 this season, and they come into this match on the back of their best campaign win.
The weekend before the win over Ohio State, the Wolverines labored to a 19-17 win at home to Illinois. This is the same Illinois who lost to this Saturday’s opponents, Purdue, 31-24 the week before.
Before the Illinois match, the Wolverines were pretty ruthless, though. They defeated Nebraska 34-3, Rutgers 52-17, and MI State 29-7, in the games before. So it could be the case that the Illinois performance was just a one-off. And in fairness, as poor as they were, the Wolverines still won that match.
Purdue enters the Conference Championship match against Michigan on the back of a three-game winning streak.
Last weekend they defeated Indiana 30-16 to take the Big Ten West title. Their previous two wins were at home over Northwestern (17-9), and a way to Illinois (31-14). But these two sides aren’t in the class of Michigan, and this weekend will be a huge challenge.
To put Purdue’s form into perspective, before the three-match-winning run, they lost 24-3 at home to Iowa. That was at the start of November. So it’s no wonder the best NCAAF sportsbooks aren’t giving them much chance this Saturday night.
Onto the match odds and our latest NCAAF betting picks, and the best college football betting sites seem to think it’s Michigan’s game to lose. These are the same sportsbooks that thought Ohio State would beat Michigan last week, by the way.
On the moneyline, Michigan is -800 with BetUS, the same sportsbook, making Purdue +550 to win. As for the handicap spread, Purdue has a +16.5 points start and are -110 to win. Starting from -16.5, Michigan is also -110.
It’s hard to see past a win for the Wolverines. I know they upset the odds last weekend, pulling off a shock victory of sorts. But I don’t see them falling victim to the same sort of thing this weekend.
In Michigan’s last five matches, they’ve won by margins of 22 (Ohio State), two (Illinois), 31 (Nebraska), 35 (Rutgers), and 22 (MI State). The handicap here is a competitive looking 16.5 points, but I think Michigan can do it. They will be flying after last weekend’s win, and JJ McCarthy looked at the business and will take increased confidence into this match.
Therefore, I’m making the Michigan Wolverines win the match on the handicap my first betting pick.
On the total points market, the spread is set at 51.5. Over 51.5 is -110, and under 51.5 is also -110. This suggests the best Vegas sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring game. In their last five games, Michigan has only topped that amount on two occasions. As for Purdue, they have also only topped it twice in their last two.
Even though the statistics are saying under, I’m not so sure. I’m still looking at last weekend’s match, and as I expect Michigan to score heavily against Purdue, I’m going for over 51.5 on the total points spread for my second betting pick.
