It’s Week 3 in the 2022/23 NCAA football season, and even though we are barely a month into the new season, there is already plenty going on, and that’s just with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Later on, we’ll name some NCAAF picks for this weekend. But first, let’s take a look back at last weekend, and see if we can work out what happened to Nick Saban’s side when they traveled to Texas to take on the Longhorns.
There was a huge result that sent shockwaves through the NCAA last weekend. Yes, Alabama kept their unbeaten start to the season going; they are now 2-0. But to have only beaten Texas by one point (they were giving the Longhorns 20 on the Handicap) is a major shock.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Alabama coach Nick Saban wasn’t having any of it. He was critical of anybody who thought his team had to turn up to beat the Longhorns last weekend. Suggesting those who differed in their views didn’t know much about football. He also dismissed the Handicap spread set down by the top Vegas betting sites, saying betting odds do not mean anything to him.
There are two ways of looking at this result from a betting perspective.
One, Alabama either had an off day, and the Longhorns were also on a good day, and it was just a freak result.
Two, Alabama isn’t as strong as we originally thought.
In fairness to Nick Saban and his team, it is only their second game of the season. The result may kick up the backside for the Crimson Tide, and it could be just what they needed.
Either way, it’s probably not worth reading too much into Saban’s remarks. He is probably right that the betting world and the press aren’t fully aware of what goes on behind the scenes. And he is also probably correct to not care what we all claim to know and just focus on getting the match won.
After all, that’s the most important thing to Saban, and it’s why he just got his big pay raise – making him the best-paid coach (again) in college football.
But why I say it’s not essential to read too much into Saban’s remarks, or rants, as they’ve been described elsewhere, is because it was predictable.
If Saban’s team isn’t as good as we believed it was at the start of the season, he’s not going to sit there and admit it. He also isn’t going to say that his team was outfought. And he certainly won’t be saying he hasn’t coached them properly.
On the contrary, Saban accused the media of not listening. Rather than taking the blame, he blamed others for ignoring the fact he predicted a hard match.
Put simply, Saban is playing the performance down. And that’s why I say his comments shouldn’t be taken too seriously. He’s talking up the opponents and blaming everyone else. Classic distraction tactics.
What we need to focus on is the performance of Alabama. Do they look like a team underperforming? And if so, was it a one-off, or could this be long-term?
The sportsbooks have certainly reacted to the results from last weekend. Georgia Bulldogs went into the previous round of matches as the +350 second favorites in the betting to win the National Championship. After producing a regulation 33-0 win over Samford, the Bulldogs go into this weekend’s matches as the new favorites, with BetOnline pricing them up at +185.
As for the Crimson Tide, they remain the same at +200 but are now the second favorite. Ohio State remains third in the betting. They are +350 this week, a slight cut from the +400 they were ahead of last weekend’s matches.
| NCAAF 2023 National Championship Betting |  |
|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | +185 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +200 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +350 |
| Clemson Tigers | +1200 |
| USC | +1200 |
| Michigan | +1600 |
| Oklahoma | +2500 |
Odds are supplied by BetOnline. You can read more about this popular sportsbook in our BetOnline sportsbook review.
Let’s finish by getting some NCAAF picks for the weekend matches. We will focus on the Crimson Tide; they’re worth following this season by the looks of things.
Back at home, Alabama is giving the Warhawks a start of 49.5 and are -115 in the NCAAF betting odds. There is no Moneyline available with Bovada, but it would be ridiculous if there were. And after last week, would you bet on it anyway?
The point spread is 61.5. If the sportsbooks suggest Alabama is going to win by 50, then one extra Crimson Tide score and one from the Warhawks take us up to this total. Therefore I think over 61.5 points has to be the call.
I’m not writing Alabama off. I think they will come good this weekend. On the handicap market, Alabama has scored 55 points in their opening match at home. They never play substandard two weeks running. Nick Saban is fuming, so let’s go for the Crimson Tide to beat the spread for our second betting pick.
