The Houston Astros kept the 2021 World Series alive with a 9-5 win over the Atlanta Brave at Truist Park on Sunday, and in doing so, keep the contest going for another match at the very least.
The series now moves back to Houston, with Minute Maid Park to host the 6th (and 7th, if required) match of the series. Meaning there is now no home-field advantage left for the Brave.
In the latest Baseball betting to win the 2021 World Series, BetUS has the Atlanta Braves at -240 on the Moneyline to clinch the series.
The Houston Astros, needing to win both remaining matches, are +190 to win their first title since 2017.
Before moving on to our betting picks for match 6, let’s have a quick recap of where we are at in the series.
The Astros went into the series as the favorites with the top vegas online sportsbooks, but despite this, haven’t been ahead yet in the whole series.
They started with a home-field advantage and immediately lost it, with the Braves inflicting a heavy 6-2 defeat on the hosts.
Dusty Baker’s Astros then hit back in match 2, with an even bigger win, taking that 7-2, and leveling up the series.
Then the Braves took over, maximizing their home-field advantage by taking matches 3 and 4, to race into a 3-1 lead. And with a further home match to come, put themselves on the brink of winning the title.
Match 4 did have a decisive feel about it. The Astros had a 2-0 lead and looked in control, and were set to make the series all square again.
Then after pulling one back in the 6th innings, the Braves stole the match with home runs in the 7th from Dansby Swanson and Jorge Soler, giving them a 3-2 win on the night, and a 3-1 lead in the series.
That defeat could have been fatal for the Astros, given the manner of the loss, and the fact that Atlanta had the home-field advantage again in Match 5.
All credit has to go to the Astros for their 9-5 win in Match 5, especially when you consider that the Braves rushed into a 4-0 lead in the 1st innings.
The sensational turnaround means that the Astros take all the momentum into Match 6 tonight.
With the home-field advantage, the Astros are the favorites to win Match 6, BetOnline has them at -121 on the Moneyline.
The handicap spread makes for interesting reading.
Starting with a 1.5 deficit, the Astros are an interesting looking +160, with the Braves at -180.
Finally, the total runs market spread is set at 8.5.
As alluded to earlier, the Astros go into tonight’s match with all the momentum. They also have home-field advantage and will be looking to exploit that.
I can understand why the top online sportsbooks have them as favorites, and at -121 they are actually good value in a two-horse race outcome bet.
I think the Astros will win tonight and take the world series into a final match showdown.
On the spread, both of the Astros’ wins so far have comfortably beaten the -1.5 handicap given to them by the sportsbooks.
Only one of the five matches so far has seen a side win by less than 1.5 points – that was in Match 4, won by the Braves 3-2.
If as expected – by me anyway – the Astros win, I expect them to also beat the spread of -1.5.
At impressive odds of +160, I think the Astros have to be taken for the value on offer. Any win for the Astros of over 1 point sees the bet come home.
Finally the over/under spread, which is set at 8.5 runs.
This total was smashed in Match 5, with a total of 14 home runs scored.
Prior to that, it was well below in matches 3 and 4, both won by the Braves.
In the Astros’ other world series win in Match 2, nine home runs were scored. While in the Braves opening win, 8 home runs were scored, again just below the spread.
The statistics are telling me that if the Astros are to win, the chances are they will win by a few. Which should, in turn, mean over 8.5 runs is the bet to place.
So for my final betting pick of Match 6 in the 2021 world series, I’m going for over 8.5 runs. This bet is -115 with BetUS.
Whatever the outcome, it promises to be a great game of baseball. And for the sake of a seventh and final game, and my betting picks, let’s hope for a win for the Astros.
