Islam Makhachev will take on Arman Tsarukyan in the main event of UFC 311. The fight is a rematch of their 2019 contest, won by Makhachev via unanimous decision. Makhachev is the -400 betting favorite to repeat his win. We tell you if the bookmakers have called the fight correctly in our latest UFC betting picks.
UFC 311 is the first pay-per-view offering brought to you by the promotion in 2025. The headline fight sees Islam Makhachev defend his UFC Lightweight belt against Arman Tsarukyan.
The promotion has again put together a high-quality fight card. Also taking to the Octagon on January 18 are Merab Dvalishvili (+250) and Umar Nurmagomedov (-334). The duo will meet in the co-main event.
On the undercard are Jiri Prochazka (-110) vs. Jamahal Hill (-110), Beneil Dariush (+200) vs. Renato Moicano (-250), and Kevin Holland (-150) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+125).
But the main focus of attention will be on Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan. The two first met back in 2019 on the undercard of Overeem vs. Oleinik at UFC Fight Night 149.
The contest was impressively won by Makhachev. But both men produced spirited performances in the Octagon with the scrap earning the Fight of the Night award.
The contest also awakened UFC fans to the exciting potential of both fighters. And it’s fair to say neither have disappointed or failed to live up to their billing over the following years.
Islam Makhachev is the favorite in the latest UFC Vegas betting odds.
On the money line, Makhachev is -400 to successfully defend his Lightweight title and beat Tsarukyan for a second time. Arman Tsarukyan is +300 to gain revenge over Makhachev for his loss in 2019.
More betting options from our recommended UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
Islam Makhachev has a career record of 26-1. In the UFC he is 15-1.
Makhachev has won 12 fights by submission, nine by decision, and five by knockout. His one defeat came against Adriano Martins. The KO defeat came in 2015, in only Makhachev’s second fight with the promotion.
It’s fair to say that the 33-year-old from Dagestan has learned from his experience. He has since won 14 successive fights and has become the UFC No.1 pound-for-pound fighter.
Makhachev won the Lightweight belt by defeating Charles Oliveira for the vacant title at UFC 280 in October 2022.
Since his second-round submission win over the Brazilian, Makhachev has successfully defended the title three times. He recorded two wins over Alexander Volkanovski in 2023. And in his most recent defense, Makhachev defeated Dustin Poirier by submission at UFC 302 in June 2024.
Makhachev is an exceptional grappler. He is trained and mentored by the great Khabib Nurmagomedov. But with two KO wins in his last five fights, his striking power is improving. He has also finished seven of his last eight fights within the distance, showing an urgency to get the job done quicker in his recent scraps.
Makhachev connects with 2.65 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy rate is 59 percent. The Russian absorbs a paltry 1.56 strikes per minute with a defense of 61 percent which shows how difficult he is to defeat.
The current champion attempts 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 53 percent. His takedown defense is at a ridiculous 90 percent.
Arman Tsarukyan has an MMA record of 22-3. In the UFC his record is 9-2.
Nine of Tsarukyan’s wins have come by KO, eight by decision, and five by submission. Two of his defeats were by decision, with one by KO. The KO defeat came in 2015, in Tsarukyan’s second professional fight, and it was the only time he has been stopped in his career to date.
Tsarukyan’s debut fight in the UFC promotion was his defeat to Makhachev. Since the loss, Tsarukyan has gone on to become the No.1 fighter in the UFC’s Lightweight rankings.
The 28-year-old is on a four-fight winning streak. His last win came against Charles Oliveira, with Tsarukyan coming out on the right side of a split decision at UFC 300 in April 2024.
Tsarukyan is a wrestler and grappler by trade. But he is also an improving all-round fighter. He averages 3.79 significant strikes per minute with a 48 percent success rate. Tsarukyan also has a superb defense, absorbing only 1.84 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 53 percent.
The No.1 Lightweight averages 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at a success rate of 37 percent. His takedown defense isn’t as impressive as Makhachev’s. But at 75 percent, it is more than good enough.
These are two of the promotion’s best fighters. But the main difference is that the champion, Islam Makhachev looks to be in the perfect place in his career at the moment.
Beating the champion in his current form is as close to impossible as it gets. And although Tsarukyan has time on his side and will one day probably be champion, he won’t be winning the title from the current version of Makhachev at UFC 311.
Another win inside the distance for Makhachev is our pick.
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