In the Thursday NBA picks, the best team in the league is playing host to the best player in the league.
The 19-3 Cleveland Cavaliers, who lead the Eastern Conference with the NBA’s best record, are facing reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
Oddsmakers appear to be investing in the notion that a great team will outdo a great player. They are setting the Cavaliers as 4-point home favorites in the NBA picks.
 | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | +4 (-110) | +140 | O 235.5 (-110) |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | -4 (-110) | -160 | U 235.5 (-110) |
The Cavaliers and Nuggets have split the last 10 games played in Cleveland right down the middle. Each team has won five games.
Among eight NBA games on tap on the Thursday NBA schedule, this is the one we are selecting to focus on in our NBA picks and best bets.
Prior to making any bets on your NBA picks, you definitely should be checking out the latest NBA Vegas odds. You can also assess the most recent developments in NBA prop bets. You should also be taking advantage of these Vegas betting site bonuses to make the most of your NBA betting.
Overall, the last 10 games between Cleveland and Denver have seen each team post five wins. The Cavaliers are 1-3 against the spread in the last four meetings with the Nuggets. At Cleveland, the Cavs are 2-1 both SU and ATS vs the Nuggets.
In all games, Cleveland is 7-2 SU over the past nine contests. The Cavaliers are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games. At home, they are even better. Cleveland is 12-1 SU in the last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. Against the Western Conference, Cleveland is 5-0 SU in the last five games.
The Nuggets are 3-6 SU in their past nine games. However, Denver is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games facing teams from the Eastern Conference and 7-1 SU against Central Division opponents.
The total has gone under in four of Cleveland’s last five games. On the other hand, the over has hit in five straight Denver vs Cleveland games. At Cleveland, the over is 6-3 in the last nine games when Denver has been the visitor. Four of the past five times that the Cavs were facing Northwest Division opposition, the over has also proven to be the winning play.
The over has hit in 12 of Denver’s past 17 games. The under has proven to be the correct play in four of Denver’s last six road games.
Cleveland is 17-2 SU as a betting favorite. The Cavaliers are 10-3 ATS on their home court. Denver is 3-2 SU as the underdog in the betting line. The Nuggets are 4-5 ATS as an away team.
Jokic poured in 38 points as Denver was beating Golden State in the NBA Cup in their last game. The MVP in three of the past four seasons, the Denver center is averaging a triple-double this season with 30.1 points, 13 rebounds, 10.4 assists. He’s also swiping 1.7 steals per contest.
The problem is when Jokic leavs the floor, the Nuggets fall apart. They were +23 against Golden State during the 40 minutes Jokic played. Denver was -19 when he was on the bench.
On the Denver injurt report, power forward Aaron Gordon (calf) is probable. Power forward DaRon Holmes II (achilles) is out for season and small forward Vlatko Cancar is out at least eight weeks after undergoing knee surgery.
Even though the Cavaliers were making easy work of the Washington Wizards in their last game by a 118-87 count, there was cause for concern in Cleveland. Both members of Cleveland’s all-star backcourt – Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland – were leaving the game due to injury.
In the third quarter, Garland took an elbow to the head from Washington’s Jonas Valanciunas and left the game. Menawhile, Mitchell was also hurt in a scary collision with Valanciunas. He left the game holding his shoulder.
Post-game, Cleveland coach Kenny Atkinson was insisting both would be fine for Thursday’s game, and that’s proven to be more than just coach speak. Neither player is showing up on the Cleveland injury report.
Guard Ty Jerome is the only uncertainty for the Cavaliers. He’s listed as questionable due to illness. Small forward Emoni Bates (knee) and point guard Max Strus (ankle) are out.
While Cleveland is 12-1 SU at home this season, Denver is a middling 5-4 SU as a road team. The Nuggets are just 5-5 over their past 10 games.
As a team, Cleveland is simply better and deeper than Denver in almost every category. The best team will beat the best player. Take Cleveland to cover as the home chalk in the Thursday NBA picks.
