On Sunday, the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl game matchups for the 2024-25 season were unveiled. The Missouri Tigers, who finished 9-3 and ranked No. 19 nationally, earned a spot in the Music City Bowl. Missouri, which placed seventh in the SEC, will face the Iowa Hawkeyes, who went 8-4 and finished sixth in the Big Ten.
The game is set for December 30 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Tigers are currently listed as 4-point favorites, with the over/under set at 40.5 points.
Iowa enters their matchup against Missouri with an 8-4 record, excelling at home (5-1) but struggling on the road (2-3). The Hawkeyes have been favored in 10 of their 12 games, achieving a 7-3 record as the favorite. Their ATS record stands at 5-5-1, with three covers in six home games and a 5-4-1 mark as the favorite, supported by an average scoring margin of +10.9 points per game.
Offensively, Iowa averages 28 points per game, ranking 49th nationally, with a strong run game generating 200.6 rushing yards per contest (23rd nationally). Kaleb Johnson leads the rushing attack with 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns at an impressive 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade McNamara has added 1,017 passing yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 76 passer rating.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes rank 7th in the nation, allowing just 17.1 points per game. Opponents average 118.1 rushing yards and 196.2 passing yards per contest, with a 76.6 passer rating against Iowa’s defense. In their recent win over Nebraska, the Hawkeyes limited the Cornhuskers to 10 points, despite conceding 334 total yards and 20 first downs.
This season, Iowa’s over/under record is 8-3, with games averaging 45.1 points. With this week’s total set at 40.5 points, their average over/under line this year has been slightly lower, at 40.2 points.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri enters the Music City Bowl with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 5-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. The Tigers have thrived when favored, boasting a 6-0 record in such games, with an average scoring margin of +9 points per game. Against the spread (ATS), Missouri is 7-3 overall and 4-1 at home, including a 5-1 mark as favorites and 3-1 ATS at home in those matchups.
Missouri’s games have averaged 49.2 points, with a 4-6 over/under record this season. While their average game total is close to 50 points, this week’s line is set at a more conservative 40.5 points.
Offensively, Missouri ranks 40th in national power rankings, averaging 29.1 points per game. They excel on third downs, converting 46.7% of their attempts to rank 16th nationally. The Tigers rely on a strong rushing attack, averaging 39.9 carries and 172.6 yards per game. This places them 25th in the nation for rushing attempts.
Quarterback Brady Cook has thrown for 2,248 yards with a 63.3% completion rate, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions, earning a passer rating of 94. Running back Nate Noel has rushed for 804 yards at an efficient 5.0 yards per carry, while wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. has been the top target, racking up 809 yards on 55 receptions.
Defensively, Missouri is a top-20 unit, allowing just 20.1 points per game, ranking 17th nationally. The Tigers have been strong against both the run and the pass, surrendering 134 rushing yards per game and 185.5 passing yards, the latter ranking 37th nationally. In their last outing against Arkansas, Missouri allowed 21 points, yielding 148 rushing yards and 229 passing yards. However, they managed to keep their opponent out of the end zone through the air.
Music City Bowl 2024 Prediction and Betting Picks
I predict the Iowa Hawkeyes will secure a victory over the Missouri Tigers. Along with winning straight-up, the Hawkeyes are expected to cover the spread at +4.0.
Starting out in the betting industry, Henry later found his calling in sports writing. Specializing in soccer, golf, and darts, he also offers insights into a wide array of sports across the globe. After earning a BA Honors degree in Business and Management, Henry advanced through the ranks at William Hill in England. His career isn't just limited to sports; he's also made a mark in Property and Finance, fields in which he remains engaged. Henry now resides in Barcelona, where he enjoys playing golf year-round as part of the Real Federacion Espanola de Golf.