Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi meet in the UFC’s next show which comes from north of the border in Edmonton on Saturday night. Moreno (-155) is the betting favorite to win the fight against a determined Amir Albazi (+125), who will see this as an opportunity to move up the pecking order in the flyweight division. We look ahead to the fight in our latest UFC betting picks.
Brandon Moreno is the No.2 ranked fighter in the Flyweight division, Amir Albazi is No.3. On the surface, this sounds like a title eliminator bout. But with current Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja set to take on former two-time Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura at UFC 310, Moreno and Albazi will have to bide their time.
The UFC’s decision to catapult debutant Asakura into a title fight shows how highly the franchise’s management rates the 30-year-old from Japan. But his elevation comes as a blow to both Moreno and Albazi, as now all they can do in this fight is try to catch the eye of the matchmakers for fights further down the road.
Despite his No.2 ranking, Moreno looks to be the fighter with the most to lose on Saturday night. The 30-year-old has lost his previous two fights in the UFC (against Pantoja and Brandon Royval), and a third straight loss would see his reputation further damaged.
On the flip side, Amir Albazi is on a six-fight winning streak. The 31-year-old Iraqi is making a name for himself in the promotion. A defeat would be a setback, but his quiet accent up the rankings won’t have gone unnoticed, and he will likely get another chance to prove himself at the top level.
The latest UFC Vegas betting odds favor a win for Brandon Moreno. The former flyweight champion is -155 to win on the money line. In two-way betting, that makes him a warm favorite, rather than a red-hot one.
To win and cause a minor shock, Amir Albazi is +125. More betting options from our recommended UFC betting sites can be found on our odds table.
Brandon Moreno is the more experienced of the two fighters. He has a MMA record of 21-8-2. In the UFC, his record is nine wins, five defeats, and two draws.
In defense of Moreno’s record, he has been in the octagon with some of the promotion’s biggest stars. He has fought the best and has twice been the UFC Flyweight champion.
Another thing that Moreno has had to deal with within the organization is fighting the same opponents more often than he would have liked. Moreno has fought against Deiveson Figueiredo four times, Brandon Royval twice, Kai-Kara France twice, and Alexandre Pantoja twice.
His flexibility to take fights against anybody and at short notice has earned him title shots, but it may have resulted in opponents learning how to beat him. His most recent defeat was to Royval in February 2024. The fight was their second after Moreno beat Royval by TKO in November 2020 (UFC 255).
Brandon Moreno is a very talented fighter with no obvious technical weaknesses. He is strong on the mat and is a good puncher who lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy rate of 44 percent. Moreno averages 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46 percent.
In defense, Moreno absorbs 3.63 significant strikes per minute. His takedown defense is 63%.
Amir Albazi has a mixed martial arts record of 17-1. In the UFC his record is 5-0. Two of his UFC wins have come by submission, two by decision, and one by KO.
The fight against Moreno is a huge step up in class for Albazi. It will be the first time he has fought a ranked opponent in the organization and only the second time he has fought over five rounds.
Against a guy with Moreno’s cardio, that could be a challenge. But Albazi can counter that with the strong grappling skills that saw him dominate Kara-France with over six minutes of control time.
The win over Kara-France was back in June 2023. It was the last time Albazi was in the octagon, and that is a long time without any action for a guy working his way up the rankings.
Albazi lands an average of 2.8 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy is a low 39 percent. Albazi averages 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes with 33 percent accuracy.
In defense, Albazi absorbs 3.07 strikes per minute and he has a takedown defense of 40 percent.
The sportsbooks have this down as a close fight. The great unknown though, is how Amir Albazi will cope with the step up in class. He looks to have the skills to take on Moreno, but until they meet in the octagon, we’re not going to know.
Brandon Moreno is the more established fighter. He knows how to win these sorts of contests and has never lost three in a row in the UFC. We’re backing the former champion to come good and see off Albazi.
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