Alex Pereira takes on Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307. Pereira has taken the UFC by storm. He is one of the standout stars of the organization, and he is the odds-on favorite to defend his light-heavyweight title against Rountree. In our latest UFC betting picks, we tell you if Pereira will successfully defend his title.
We’ve only just gotten UFC 306 out of the way, and already attention is turning to UFC 307. This is because there has been a quick turnaround with 306 taking place on September 14th, and the 307 pay-per-view event taking place on October 5th.
Topping the bill is Alex Pereira, arguably, the biggest show in the whole of the UFC at the moment. The Brazilian is defending his light-heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree is on a five-fight winning streak. He is ranked the No.8 fighter in the UFC light-heavyweight division. But he will have his work cut out against the current champion in the 205-pound division.
In the latest UFC Vegas Betting Odds, Alex Pereira is -450 to win on the money line. To defeat the champion and make it six wins in a row, Khalil Rountree Jr. is +350.
To put those odds into perspective, Pereira was -145 to beat Jamahal Hill at UFC 300. And he was -130 to defeat Jiri Prochazka in their hastily arranged rematch at UFC 303.
In fairness to Khalil Rountree, if everyone had realized just how good Pereira was ahead of those two fights, we’re sure the odds would be far more one-sided than they were.
Due to Pereira’s short time in the UFC (this is only his tenth fight with the promotion), the sportsbooks seemed reluctant to have him as short as he probably deserved to be in his previous fights.
That ship has definitely sailed now. And we can look forward to either having to back the Brazilian at very short odds or finding alternative betting markets to wager on him.
More Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. betting options are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best UFC betting sites.
Alex Pereira has a mixed martial arts record of 11-2. Within the UFC, his record is 8-1.
What makes Pereira’s record all the more remarkable is that of his nine fights in Dana White’s promotion, eight of them have been on pay-per-view cards.
Pereira arrived at the promotion with a fearsome reputation. His rivalry with Israel Adesanya from their kickboxing days at Glory played a part in his fast-tracking to the top of the UFC.
But where Pereira differs from others, is he has backed up his reputation with performances. In fact, he hasn’t just backed it up, he has enhanced his reputation.
Six of his eight wins in the UFC have come by KO. The only two opponents to take Pereira the distance are Bruno Silva and Jan Błachowicz. The win over Silva was unanimous and came in March 2022. The victory over Blachowicz was a split-decision win at UFC 291 in July 2023.
His only defeat in the promotion came against his old adversary Adesanya. That was in April 2023 at UFC 287. Since then, Pereira has won four in a row. The most recent three have all been by KO.
Khalil Rountree Jr. has a record of 14-5-0 with one no-contest. In the UFC his record is 10-5 with the one no contest.
As of January 2021, Rountree was 5-5 in the UFC. Since then he has gone on a five-fight winning streak, with four of the five wins ending inside the distance by TKO.
In total, ten of his 14 wins have come by KO, with four by decision. Of his five defeats, two have come by KO, two via decision, and one by submission.
Rountree’s most recent win was a TKO victory over Anthony Smith. The win was in December 2023.
The reason for his inactivity since that victory is because of a suspension.
Rountree was due to face Jamahal Hill at UFC 303. However, he had to withdraw from the fight after inadvertently taking a banned substance in a supplement.
He was suspended by the CSAD, but his ban has now expired and he is free to fight again.
Both fighters are renowned for their punching power and technical ability. But the stats highlight the main differences between the pair.
Pereira lands 5.23 significant strikes a minute to Rountree’s 3.84. Rountree’s accuracy is just 39%, Pereira’s is 63%. In defense, the champion Pereira absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute. Rountree takes 4.18.
Put simply, Pereira is a superior fighter and a superior athlete. He looks like he is unbeatable in this division at this moment in time.
Alex Pereira to beat Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ is our betting pick.
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