The co-main event of UFC 306 is a third fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. Their first two fights were extremely close, with Grasso winning one, and the judges unable to split the two in the second. Who will come out the winner in the trilogy fight? We give you the answer in our latest UFC betting picks.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko is the co-main event on the UFC’s first pay-per-view fight card where they are partnering with the Saudi-run General Entertainment Authority (GEA).
As a result, for sponsorship reasons, UFC 306 is also being promoted as Riyadh Season Noche UFC.
Headlining the card is Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, you can read all about our take on that fight in our O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili betting picks.
Also on the card are Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics, and Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne.
But it’s Grasso and Shevchenko that we are focussing on.
Grasso is the defending champion. She won the Flyweight title from Shevchenko at UFC 285 in March 2023. Grasso then defended the belt against the former champion in a rematch in September 2023, with the judges scoring it as a draw.
Saturday’s fight is the latest installment. A win for Grasso settles the score once and for all. But a win for Shevchenko leaves it at one win apiece, with room for a fourth and final deciding showdown.
The opening betting for this fight saw both women slated at -115 to win.
In recent days the best UFC betting sites have slashed the odds on a win for Grasso to -140. The punters have clearly been getting behind the champion.
As a result, Valentina Shevchenko is now +110 to win the title back at the second time of asking.
On the totals line, 4.5 rounds is the spread. The fight to last over 4.5 rounds is -200. To end in under 4.5 rounds, you can get +165.
A reminder; The first fight ended after 4 minutes and 34 seconds of round 4. The second fight went the distance.
More betting options for Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko from different bookmakers are available on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best sites for UFC betting.
Alex Grasso has a mixed martial arts record of 16-3-1.
The 31-year-old from Guadalajara, Mexico is six fights unbeaten, winning five, and drawing one. The last time Grasso tasted defeat was in 2019 when she lost to Carla Esparza in Mexico City.
Grasso won the 125-pound title from Shevchenko when they met in March 2023. The victory was secured by a face-crank submission win. It may be significant, but Grasso was behind on the scorecards when the fight ended.
Ten of Grasso’s career wins have come by decision, with four KO victories and two wins by submission.
Grasso’s three defeats all came early in her UFC career. Two were by decision, and one by submission.
Valentina Shevchenko has a 23-4-1 record in MMA.
Shevchenko is the No.1 ranked flyweight and is attempting to win back a belt she previously held from December 2018, until her defeat to Grasso in March 2023.
In total, Shevchenko defended the title seven times. She was also on a nine-fight winning streak before the loss to Grasso.
Included in her 23 wins are eight KO victories, eight wins by decision, and seven wins by submission. Two of Shevchenko’s four losses were on points, with one loss by KO and the other by submission.
In the first fight, the UFC Vegas Betting Odds were heavily in favor of Shevchenko. The then-defending champion was a massive -800 favorite.
Obviously after a defeat, the odds shifted towards Grasso for the second fight.
The new champion went into the rematch as the outsider, but much shorter at +140. Shevchenko was again the favorite, but his time at -165.
Finally, for the third fight, Alexa Grasso is the betting favorite. BetUS has her as short as -140.
Is Grasso a justified betting favorite? We feel she is. Age could be one of the reasons for this. Shevchenko is not just five years older, but at 36, she is heading towards the twilight of her career.
At 31 years old, Grasso is just hitting her prime. That doesn’t guarantee a win for the Mexican. But it is a major factor in her favor.
Both women are well-rounded fighters. The difference is Grasso relies more on taking the fight the distance, she wears opponents down.
Shevchenko keeps all options to win on the table. She can go the distance, win by KO, and also by submission.
Ultimately, time catches up with some fighters. And we feel that is starting to be the case with the former champ.
So with the age difference in Grasso’s favor, we feel she is the best bet to win the fight on the scorecards.
See below the best online betting sites in USA 2024, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
