The 2024 Japanese Grand Prix comes from Suzuka on Sunday. The favorite to win the race is Max Verstappen (-500). But after his car failed him in Australia, is the race to win the Drivers’ Championship about to be blown wide open? We look at the latest betting in our preview and name our F1 betting picks to win the big race from Japan.
Well, it finally happened, Max Verstappen’s car failed for once, and he didn’t win a Grand Prix.
When the triple-world champion retired on lap four of the Australian Grand Prix, a -500 betting favorite had been turned over. And punters who had been filling their boots backing the Red Bull driver over the past couple of years were left licking their wounds.
The soon-to-be ex-Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz took the checkered flag. The Spaniard is still the only non-Red Bull driver to win a Grand Prix in 2023 and 2024.
So is this the beginning of the end of Red Bull’s domination, or was it just a blip, with normal service set to resume this weekend in Suzuka?
If the Formula 1 Las Vegas betting sites are to be believed, it is simply a blip. They again are pricing Max Verstappen up to win at -500 in Suzuka.
So far this season, Verstappen was -325 to win in Bahrain, -375 in Saudi Arabia, and -500 to win in Australia. The bookmakers haven’t been spooked by what happened in Melbourne. They are doubling down.
Following Verstappen in the betting is his teammate Sergio Perez at +1100. The Mexican driver was +800 in Australia, but after finishing a disappointing fifth in Melbourne, he has been eased out for the race in Japan.
Ferrari finished one and two in Australia. The first time they’ve taken the top two spots on the podium since Bahrain in 2022. Both their drivers are +1600 to win in Suzuka. Then comes Lando Norris at +2500, with Lewis Hamilton down at +3300, alongside George Russell and Oscar Piastri.
Hamilton had a stinker in Australia. Starting from 11th on the grid, his engine failed on lap 16, and he was forced to retire. Hamilton is being outperformed by his teammate George Russell this season and is struggling to get to grips with his new car.
As things stand, the Brit is a no-goer when it comes to betting on him in individual races.
More 2024 Japanese Grand Prix betting is on our Las Vegas odds table. We have taken the odds from the best sportsbooks for Formula 1 betting.
| Drivers |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -500 | -500 | -500 |
| Sergio Perez | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Lando Norris | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| George Russell | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Oscar Piastri | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Fernando Alonso | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Pierre Gasly | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
So what has the 2024 Australian Grand Prix done to the betting to win the Drivers Championship with and without Verstappen?
Well, with him, it’s made no difference. Verstappen is -1000 to win the title for a fourth successive year.
In the betting without Verstappen, it’s still Sergio Perez who leads the way. He was -163 before Melbourne but is now -150 after again failing to impress. Charles Leclerc is still the second favorite. His odds have shortened from +400 to +350. In general, there has been little change at the top of the market. But Norris has been cut from +1400 to +650, and Sainz is now +700, having previously been out at +2200.
Lewis Hamilton is now down at +3300. That puts him behind Fernando Alonso, who is +2500. Is Hamilton now worth a wager at this early stage of the season? There is a long way to go. And as we saw in 2023, Mercedes played catch-up throughout the season and gradually improved.
It’s still likely that Max Verstappen will win the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix. He won in 2023, over 19 seconds ahead of Lando Norris.
Whether he is worth backing at odds of -500 after what happened in Australia is another question.
We are most certainly avoiding Max Verstappen in Suzuka. We feel it would be madness to back him at those odds, and we are giving the Red Bull driver a wide berth.
In the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, McLaren finished two and three on the podium. They are also in good form at the moment, having finished third and fourth in Australia. We know that the car is suited to this circuit, so we are backing Lando Norris to finish on the podium at +175.
For our pick to win the race, we are backing the field to win. There is a slight bit of uncertainty about the Red Bulls, and with Ferrari and McLaren performing well, it seems the more sensible bet.
Our Japanese Grand Prix betting pick is for any driver other than Max Verstappen to win the race.
See below for the best online betting sites in USA 2024, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
