Super Bowl LVIII is set. After a pair of exciting conference championship games, the San Francisco 49ers will represent the NFC as they clash with Patrick Mahomes and the AFC winner Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, February 11th at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The kick-off for this contest is scheduled for 6:30 PM EST. San Fran finds themselves in their first Super Bowl since 2020, having just beaten the Detroit Lions in comeback fashion on home soil. Kansas City meanwhile took down the powerhouse Baltimore Ravens, putting a stop to Lamar Jackson and his potent offense. They will be looking to repeat as Super Bowl winners, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles last February. It’s been 20 years since there was a repeat champion when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots did it back-to-back years. Below, find the 49ers vs Chiefs picks.
Before we lay out the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
The 49ers are a very slim favorite to win the Super Bowl at -130 odds. They’re also laying a mere two points on the spread for the most prestigious game in the NFL. The Chiefs return at +110. The total is set at 47.5. With two very good defenses, this could be a low-scoring one. Kansas City has won three in a row against San Francisco, which should have them feeling confident ahead of next month’s matchup.
All the talk this season was about the Niners’ ceiling as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. And despite heavy criticism of Brock Purdy at times, the young signal-caller has delivered. Purdy is a major reason San Francisco is in the position to win the Lombardi Trophy. “Mr. Irrelevant” threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in the regular season, completing 69.4% of his passes in the process. Purdy even put himself in the MVP conversation because of the numbers. Sure, he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, but the reality is Purdy is the real deal and deserves to be in this spot.
While the 49ers’ defense didn’t exactly look as stout as usual in the NFC Championship against the Lions, the offense showed poise and guts. Kyle Shanahan’s squad went into halftime down 24-7, with Detroit clearly in cruise control. But, San Francisco completed the comeback and it was fueled by Purdy. The former Iowa State standout ended up throwing for 267 yards including a touchdown, but he surprisingly did a lot of damage with his legs, running for 48 years on five carries.
Deebo Samuel was a beast out wide, reeling in eight catches for 89 yards. Christian McCaffrey, as per usual, also balled out, running for 90 yards on 20 carries including a pair of touchdowns. Expect CMC to be a big part of the game plan in his very first Super Bowl. There’s no question the 49ers offense will do their damage, but the defense needs to figure it out and be a lot better because although KC hasn’t been super consistent this season, they come in with momentum.
Rarely, a team goes back-to-back in the NFL. As previously mentioned, the Pats were the last team to do it. But, the Chiefs have the opportunity to become the next, despite some rough moments at times in 2023. Defensively, KC is great, allowing the second-fewest number of points per game in the league and ranking third in the fewest total yards allowed. On the offensive side of the ball, there weren’t a lot of reliable options for Mahomes, with even Travis Kelce having a down year to his standards. That being said, it was a much different story in the AFC Championship against the Ravens.
Sure, KC only won 17-10. However, Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown while rookie Rashee Rice reeled in eight grabs for 49 yards. These two were outstanding against Baltimore. In fact, Kelce had 11 targets in total. He didn’t drop a single pass. That’s the type of Kelce the Chiefs need in the Super Bowl. Chris Jones and the defense also held Baltimore to a mere 81 rushing yards, putting a stop to Lamar’s brilliance on the ground. That was undoubtedly the key going into this contest and they did it.
The Chiefs have completely dominated the Niners in recent memory, beating them 44-23 in October and 31-20 in the 2020 Super Bowl. There’s a track record of success here, but Kansas City knows they cannot take San Francisco for granted. This is a very well-rounded team with talent in all areas.
This should be a very good game. While I do think it could go either way, I’m really liking the under here. The defensive units of both teams will shine and keep this one low-scoring.
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