Arnold Allen (+157) takes on Movsar Evloev (-182) in the first UFC pay-per-view event of 2024. The fight is at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, on the UFC 297 undercard of the Strickland vs Du Plessis main event. The bout looks set to be one of the best contests on the card, and we look ahead to it here in our latest UFC betting picks.
The headline fight on the UFC 297 card is between Sean Strickland (-140) and Dricus du Plessis (+120). That’s assuming one hasn’t maimed the other before they even make it to the Octagon. The build-up to the fight has been marred in controversy, and at times, it hasn’t been pleasant viewing.
But come fight night all will be in the past, and MMA fans should be treated to a great clash of styles. For more information about the fight, check out our Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis betting picks article. Here, you will find a more in-depth look at the fight.
Ahead of Strickland vs. du Plessis there is a stacked undercard. One of the best-looking fights on the undercard is the one between Arnold Allen and Movsar Evloev. And it’s this fight we are focussing on here.
Arnold Allen is the No.4 ranked fighter in the UFC Featherweight division. The 29-year-old has a Mixed Martial Arts record of 19-2-0. Arnold joined the UFC in 2014, making his debut in 2015 with a submission win over Alan Omer at UFC Fight Night 69.
In more recent times, Allen lost to Max Holloway by unanimous decision in April 2023. The defeat ended a 12-fight winning run dating back to 2014.
The British fighter’s 19 wins have come via eight decisions, seven knockouts, and four decisions. His two defeats have both been by unanimous decision.
Movsar Evloev has a 17-0-0 record in MMA. The 29-year-old Russian is ranked No.9 in the UFC Featherweight division. Evloev is unbeaten in his 17 fights. Significantly, he has won his last seven fights by decision. And all seven have been with the UFC.
Evloev’s most recent fight saw him defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 288. The fight was in May 2023, and his performance won him the Fight of the Night award. The breakdown of Evloev’s career shows he has won ten of his 17 fights by decision, with four won by submission and three by knockout.
On the money line, Movsar Evloev starts as the favorite at odds of -182. The Russian has been getting back in as he was -170 just over one week ago. As for Arnold Allen, he is +157 in the latest UFC Vegas betting odds. The British fighter opened up at odds of +145.
Moving onto the method of victory betting, Evloev to win by decision is the favorite at odds of -145. The shortest odds on Allen’s victory method are on decision. Allen is +300 to win on the scorecards.
To win by submission, Evloev is +750, with Arnold at +1000. While to win by KO/TKO/DQ, Arnold is the shorter odds at +800, with Evloev at +1200.
More betting options are available below on our UFC odds table. All our odds are from the best MMA betting sites.
| Allen vs. Evloev |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen | +157 | +157 | +157 |
| Movsar Evloev | -182 | -182 | -182 |
| Arnold Allen by KO/TKO/DQ | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Movsar Evloev by KO/TKO/DQ | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Arnold Allen By Points | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Movsar Evloev By Points | -145 | -145 | -145 |
| Arnold Allen By Submission | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Movsar Evloev By Submission | +750 | +750 | +750 |
| Over 2.5 | -340 | -340 | -340 |
| Under 2.5 | +265 | +265 | +265 |
The odds of Movsar Evloev winning by decision are very short (-145), almost as short as his odds of winning the fight (-182). This is because of his fighting style and also because he has won all seven of his UFC fights by decision.
The Russian is a better puncher than his statistics suggest. But his primary way of winning fights is using his punching ability to wear an opponent down before taking him down to the canvas. Evloev will no doubt employ that tactic again. And he will give Arnold Allen’s takedown defense a thorough examination. How Allen copes will be the key to the outcome of the fight.
As for Allen, his takedown defenses have improved, and he is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, so isn’t to be taken lightly on the canvas. He is also an accomplished kickboxer. But with Evloev’s takedown skills, Allen may decide to leave that tool in the locker room.
Allen’s main strength is his striking ability. His best bet of winning is to try and take Evloev out during the brief periods when the Russian is prepared to stay on his feet. This explains why the best UFC bookmakers have Arnold at +800 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, compared to Evloev, who is +1200.
Don’t expect Allen to win on points. If you wish to back him, then pick him to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
If you are looking to back Evloev, then it probably makes more sense to just back him to win. Before he joined the UFC, he won four fights by submission and three by knockout. So he may win by a different method than by decision, however unlikely it sounds.
It is a tough fight to call. Would we be surprised if Allen won? No. But looking at the styles of the fighters and where their strengths lie, we have to go with a win for Movsar Evloev as our betting pick.
See below the best Las Vegas sportsbooks, where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
