Alexandre Pantoja takes on Brandon Royval in the co-main event of UFC 296 in the promotion’s final show of 2023. Pantoja (-170) is the favorite and is defending his UFC Flyweight Championship. His opponent Brandon Royval, is a former LFA Flyweight Champion. On Saturday, Rayval is looking to add the UFC title to his resume. We tell you how he’s going to get on in our latest UFC betting picks.
With Christmas fast approaching and minds elsewhere, the UFC had to put on something special to gain attention. As per usual, Dana White and his organization have risen to the occasion, with the card for UFC 296 stacked with top-quality contests.
The Pantoja vs. Royval is only the co-main event. The biggest fight on this card is the Welterweight Championship fight between the defending champion, Leon Edwards (-140), and the challenger, Colby Covington (+120).
Also on the UFC 296 card is Shavkat Rakhmonov (-600) against Stephen Thompson (+425) and Vicente Luque (+305) against Ian Garry (-405). Both are also at Welterweight.
And if that’s not enough, Leon Edwards’ fellow Brit, Paddy Pimblett (-410), is facing off against UFC legend Tony Ferguson (+310). We will look at that match-up in more detail later in our betting picks. For now, you can check out the best UFC Vegas betting odds for the main card on our MMA betting table.
| Main Card |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Colby Covington | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| Alexandre Pantoja | -170 | -170 | -170 |
| Brandon Royval | +140 | +140 | +140 |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | -600 | -600 | -600 |
| Stephen Thompson | +425 | +425 | +425 |
| Tony Ferguson | +310 | +310 | +310 |
| Paddy Pimblett | -410 | -410 | -410 |
| Vicente Luque | +305 | +305 | +305 |
| Ian Garry | -405 | -405 | -405 |
Alexandre Pantoja has a Mixed Martial Arts record of 26-5-0. The 33-year-old Brazilian is the current UFC Flyweight Champion, having defeated Brandon Moreno by split decision at UFC 290. This will be the first defense of this title, and he comes into the bout on a four-fight winning streak (one of his wins was a rear-naked choke submission victory over Brandon Royval).
Ten of Pantoja’s 26 wins have come by submission, with eight by knockout and eight by decision.
As for Brandon Royval, the 31-year-old American has a modest 15-6-0 record in MMA. Since his defeat to Pantoja, Royval has gone on a three-fight winning streak. His most recent win came against Matheus Nicolau when he stopped the Brazilian with an impressive knee and elbow-executed KO.
In his career to date, nine of Royval’s 15 wins have come by submission, with four by knockout and two by decision.
Expect a technical fight here. Both these men are submission specialists, so this looks set to be settled on the mat. Brandon Royval may know what to expect after their matchup in 2021, but knowing and stopping are two different things.
For Royval to win, we feel he needs to produce something special. A repeat of his performance against Matheus Nicolau could be required, meaning it may be worth backing Royval to win by KO/TKO/DQ as a speculative side bet. But for our main pick, we are going for Alexandre Pantoja to win.
In the eyes of the best UFC betting sites, this contest looks a lot more one-sided than the Pantoja vs. Royval fight. Paddy Pimblett is a heavy-betting favorite to win at odds of -410. Tony Ferguson is a huge outsider at +310.
Starting with Ferguson, he has a Mixed Martial Arts record of 26-9-0. The 39-year-old Californian has seen better days in the Octagon, with the veteran fighter currently on a six-fight losing streak.
Ferguson’s 26 victories have seen him win with 12 knockouts, eight submissions, and five decisions. In his most recent fight in July, he lost to Bobby Green by a technical submission.
As for Paddy Pimblett, the 28-year-old from Liverpool has an MMA record of 20-3-0. For a guy under 30, Pimblett is a well-established fighter with a strong resume. But where Ferguson has been fighting – and losing – against big names like Nate Diaz, Charles Oliveira, and Bobby Green, Pimblett’s opponents have been far lower profile.
Nine of Pimblett’s MMA wins have been by submission. He also has six by knockout and five by decision. Two of Pimblett’s three defeats were by decision. The third loss was by submission. All three of his losses came in the Cage Warriors promotion, the last of which was in 2018. In the UFC, Pimblett is currently on a four-fight winning streak.
Tony Ferguson will know he has been lined up for a seventh defeat here. Pimblett is a rising star within the UFC, and this fight is regarded as the next stage of his career development within the organization.
But this makes Ferguson a dangerous opponent. He knows that the UFC hierarchy is looking for another star name, and they will want Pimblett to continue his rise up the rankings. Ferguson has the opportunity to throw a spanner in the works and revive his own career in the process.
This is Pimblett’s first fight in a year, and after his controversial win over Jared Gordon 12 months ago, he could do with a convincing win to silence his doubters. We feel Pimblett will want to prove a point, and he will come into this fight more determined than ever to put on a show. We make Paddy Pimblett our pick to win by submission.
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